What to watch for in 2018’s race to midterm madness
WASHINGTON – A year ago, Democrats were deflated and Republicans elated by Donald Trump’s victory and GOP control of the House and Senate.
Now, Democrats are optimistic they can regain control of the House of Representatives, a step that would require flipping two dozen congressional seats in a wave of 2018 midterm elections in November. Some speculate they could claim a majority in the Senate, although that would require the electoral wave to look more like a tsunami.
The problem for Democrats is that the election is more than 10 months away — and given the turmoil of the past year or so, neither side can be sure what cataclysms could loom that might reverse moods.
What will shape the midterms? Here are some things to watch:
Does the tax bill work?
An odd thing happened when Congress passed the $1.5 trillion tax bill in December: The GOP cheered. So did the Democrats.
Democrats argued that the tax bill
would prove to be a political albatross for the GOP. The measure, which passed entirely with Republican votes, has the lowest level of support in public polls of any major legislation enacted in the past three decades. Democrats said most of its benefits would go to big corporations and the wealthy.
Republicans gamble that the tax cuts will be a financial boon for the economy and a political boon for them. Advocates argued that slashing the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35% would prompt companies to invest in new equipment, increase productivity, raise wages and create jobs. “I consider this very much a bill for the middle class and a bill for jobs,” Trump said.
The U.S. economy has shown considerable strength since Trump’s inauguration. The stock market hit record highs, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%.
It was a booming economy that helped President Clinton extinguish Republican hopes of gaining seats in the 1998 midterms, even in the face of the Monica Lewinsky scandal.
Speaking of scandal...
The risks of Russia
Allegations of Moscow’s meddling in the 2016 election, which cast a shadow over Trump’s first year in office, could erupt in a storm during his second.
Special counsel Robert Mueller indicted four Trump associates, including his onetime campaign manager and former White House national security adviser. Two of them struck plea deals that require them to cooperate with the investigation. Congressional panels are pursuing separate inquiries.
The question of whether Russia interfered in the U.S. election, hacking emails and spreading disinformation, is considered settled by American intelligence agencies. Still at issue is whether Team Trump colluded with Russians to do that and whether Trump or his allies tried to obstruct the federal investigation.
Getting a clean bill of health from Mueller would fortify Trump’s argument that there was no wrongdoing by him and his allies.
But a report by the special counsel that there was wrongdoing by Trump’s top aides, members of his family or even the president himself could lead to the most serious constitutional crisis in the four decades since Watergate.
The possibility that this would lead to a consideration of impeachment would increase considerably if Democrats won control of the House in November.
It’s not just a number
Midterm elections are in part a referendum on the president, and approval ratings have been barometers of how his party would fare.
Over more than a half-century, the only president who saw his party gain seats in his first midterm election was George W. Bush in 2002, in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terror attacks. In every other first midterm, the question has been whether losses for the party in power would be modest or major.
The three presidents with the lowest approval ratings at their first midterms — Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — all suffered setbacks. Under Reagan in 1982, Republicans lost ground in the House. Under Clinton in
1994, Democrats lost control of both the House and Senate. Under Obama in
2010, they lost control of the House and seats in the Senate.
Trump’s approval ratings have set records: They are lower than any predecessor’s since modern polling began.
Watch out for women
The morning after Trump’s inauguration a year ago, close to a half-million people participated in the defiant Women’s March on Washington. Since then, in gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, in special elections in Alabama and elsewhere, female voters have turned out in larger numbers and more decisively for Democrats than they did in 2016.
Since Trump’s election, more than 25,000 women have contacted Emily’s List, an organization that helps finance campaigns for Democratic female candidates who support abortion rights, to get information about running for office.
Consider this context: The total number of women who contacted Emily’s List for information about running during the two years before the 2016 election — 920.