Where top 7 free agents will sign
Time for this offseason absurdity to finally end
The free agent market has been historically ugly this winter, and while Yu Darvish’s $126 million contract with the Chicago Cubs could signal thawing, the opening of spring training camps this week won’t end the freeze.
Eventually, something must give in this impasse, with the regular season beginning March 29. But there are more than 90 free agents on the market who still have no idea who will be employing them this season.
There are seven players everyone has their eyes on, all who potentially will receive in excess of $50 million, with three of them virtually guaranteed of signing contracts worth at least $100 million, certainly by opening day.
And yes, that’s opening day 2018, not 2019.
Here’s our remaining top seven now and where they should land.
1B Eric Hosmer
Hosmer is Exhibit A in Commissioner Rob Manfred’s argument that it’s the agents and the players holding up the market and not the teams.
Hosmer has been sitting on two seven-year offers for at least a month, if not longer. The San Diego Padres have offered a seven-year, $140 million contract, and the Kansas City Royals have raised the ante to about $147 million over seven years.
There’s a debate among Hosmer’s friends whether he’d prefer to stay in Kansas City or try to be on the ground floor of the Padres’ restoration to greatness, but there’s no secret to the delay. He’s holding out for a nine-year deal, just like Prince Fielder back in 2012 with the Detroit Tigers, or least an eight-year, $184 million deal like outfielder Jayson Heyward received two years ago with the Cubs.
Given how older free agents are valued nowadays, it’s not hard to see why he’d want an eighth year. Hosmer would be 35 at the end of a seven-year deal. Destination: Padres, seven years,
$150.5 million with a vesting eighthyear option.
OF J.D. Martinez
Martinez had $200 million dreams after hitting 45 homers and driving in 104 runs in 119 games. If this were a few years ago, he might have really gotten that seven-year, $210 million deal. But not in 2018. Martinez’s value is being closely compared to Justin Upton and his fiveyear, $106 million contract extension he received in November with the Los Angeles Angels, not the $295 million remaining in Giancarlo Stanton’s deal.
The Boston Red Sox, who desperately need a slugger, offered him a five-year deal for about $125 million nearly two months ago and continue to wait. They want to win and would love a righthanded power hitter, but they don’t want to be stupid about it either.
Why bid against themselves? Particularly when the only other team showing interest is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who likely can’t compete with the Red Sox’s deep pockets but have proposed one-year and multiyear deals.
Martinez can say he’s frustrated all he wants and threaten not to play in Boston, but if he’s not careful, the Red Sox’s patience might evaporate, too.
The Red Sox had trade discussions during the winter with the Cleveland Indians for Edwin Encarnacion, according to club officials with direct knowledge of the talks, but didn’t want to part with outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr.
Maybe those talks are revisited. Maybe GM Dave Dombrowski calls the Tigers and lets them know they are willing to take on at least half of the remaining $192 million in Miguel Cabrera’s contract. Maybe panic sets in from both sides. Destination: Red Sox, five years, $130 million, with an opt-out after 2019.
RHP Jake Arrieta
The best pitcher in baseball in 2015, he seemed destined for a Price-Clayton Kershaw type mega-deal.
Yet along came nagging injuries, reduced velocity and concerns about his violent delivery that could lead to arm problems before his next contract expires.
One of the biggest fears for teams seeking Arrieta: What do the Cubs know about him that the rest of baseball doesn’t?
The Cubs and Arrieta barely even engaged in contract talks this winter, leaving a reunion as unlikely as a Bill Belichick comedy show.
Agent Scott Boras might be relying on old pal Ted Lerner to save the day again.
Destination: Washington Nationals, five years, $115 million.
3B Mike Moustakas
No one is mistaking Moustakas for George Brett, but he’s a premier third baseman who hit a club-record 38 home runs for Kansas City.
Yet there has not been a single team publicly showing interest in Moustakas. The free agent compensation with draft pick forfeitures scared away the San Francisco Giants and Angels. The New York Mets opted for Todd Frazier. The St. Louis Cardinals insist they’re set with Jedd Gyorko and would prefer someone with versatility.
Moustakas needs to find a place where he can join a great team, put up monster numbers in a homer-friendly ballpark and hit the market again next year. Destination: New York Yankees, one year, $14 million.
RHP Lance Lynn
He’s an old school soul who’ll take the ball every fifth day, eat up innings and get ornery when he comes out of the game.
He had hopes of a Homer Bailey-type deal — the six-year, $105 million pact the right-hander signed with the Cincinnati Reds in 2014, before he was a free agent.
Now Lynn just wants a job, knowing that someone is going to get a fierce competitor at a bargain.
The Baltimore Orioles have shown the most interest of late but keep wondering why the Cardinals haven’t made any attempt to bring him back.
Destination: Baltimore, three years, $57 million.
RHP Alex Cobb
Hey, wasn’t he supposed to be signing with the Cubs, like two months ago?
Cobb grew up in the Tampa Bay Rays organization, with the only major league pitching coach he has known, Jim Hickey, now with the Cubs, and whose first manager, Joe Maddon, is with the Cubs, and everyone understood when he kept saying he wanted to be a Cub.
The Cubs even said they were interested in him becoming a Cub. Money just got in the way.
Cobb wants to be paid like a premium starter and has a filthy arsenal of pitches. Yet despite Cobb staying virtually injury-free last year, going 12-10, pitching 1771⁄ innings, with a 3.66 ERA last sea3 son, the Cubs point out that last year was the first time he won more than 11 games. Last year was the first time he pitched more than 166 innings. And he still has never made 30 starts.
Cobb has been patient waiting for his price, but so has every other team.
Destination: Milwaukee Brewers, four years, $65 million.
Closer Greg Holland
He was the steal of the winter last year, signing a one-year, $7 million contract with another $7 million worth of incentives with the Colorado Rockies, saving a league-high 41 games and leading them to the playoffs.
He believed he was going to turn that gamble into a gold mine.
So he declined a $15 million option for 2018 in November and rejected a $17.4 million qualifying offer in November, and contract negotiations ended in December when the Rockies instead signed free agent Wade Davis to a threeyear, $52 million contract.
Today, Holland remains unemployed, with no one clamoring to sign him, particularly after his 6.38 ERA in the second half of the season.
The Nationals continue to say they’re not interested, and the Cardinals say they don’t need him. Eventually, someone is going to break.
Destination: Cardinals, two years, $25 million.