Attacks begin early in crucial races
Five states will be vital to control of the Senate
WASHINGTON – The midterm congressional elections are months away, but well-financed outside groups already are dominating the airwaves in what will be a multimillion-dollar brawl for control of the Senate.
Political groups have funded more than 70% of the early television spots that have aired in key Senate battlegrounds, according to a USA TODAY tally of advertising data compiled by Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising.
The analysis examined the top spenders in 16 states where Senatefocused advertising aired between Jan. 1, 2017, and early February of this year. The five states with the heaviest spending so far: Nevada, Indiana, Wisconsin, Arizona and West Virginia, home to what will be among the fiercest fights for control of the Senate.
Only one Senate incumbent from those five states had taken to the airwaves through early February: Nevada Sen. Dean Heller, viewed as 2018’s most vulnerable Republican. He faces a primary challenge from Danny Tarkanian, a perennial candidate who has aligned himself with President Trump.
Given the high stakes of the midterms, “you are going to see the airwaves in certain states totally flooded with ads,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Republicans, who now hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, face the head- winds of an unpopular president, energized Democratic activists upset about Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton, and history: The president’s party typically loses congressional seats in midterm elections.
But the Democrats are defending three times as many seats as Republicans in November. To retake the cham- ber, they would have to retain all 26 states held by Democrats and the two Independents who caucus with them, plus seize two of eight seats now held by Republicans. Ten of those Democratic incumbents, including Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, are competing in states where most voters chose Trump.
Recent campaign reports show vulnerable Democratic incumbents raising big sums. Nine of the 10 on the ballot in Trump states raised more than $1 million in the final three months of 2017.
The television spending tracked by the Kantar Media campaign analysis group shows some Republican-aligned groups investing heavily to erode public support for those Democratic incumbents.
In Wisconsin, Baldwin already has faced an advertising barrage from groups aligned with the billionaire Koch brothers and conservative packaging executive Richard Uihlein.
Early ads from Koch-aligned groups, such as Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce, have targeted Baldwin over her opposition to the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul Congress passed in December.
Officials with the Koch network told donors they have committed to spending heavily in Baldwin’s race and in three others in states carried by Trump: Indiana, Missouri and Florida.