Ranking Sweet 16 based on title potential
Which NCAA tournament teams are hottest? Which have the best matchup or the most favorable path to San Antonio? USA TODAY ranks the Sweet 16 in order of national-title potential.
1. Duke: With Michigan State gone and Kansas not at its best, the Midwest feels like No. 2 seed Duke’s to lose. Marvin Bagley III, a 6-10 freshman forward, averages a double-double. All-American senior guard Grayson Allen provides the veteran presence, and point guard Trevon Duval has been an X factor.
2. Kentucky: Kevin Knox can score in a variety of ways (three-pointers, jump hooks or floaters), while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has given this group a go-to presence. With the top four seeds gone in the South, the fifth-seeded Wildcats are the clear-cut favorite.
3. Villanova: National player of the year Jalen Brunson (19.1 points, 4.7 assists) and NBA prospect Mikal Bridges make for a strong tandem and give this team a significant edge in late-game situations. But role players and glue guys help this team tick.
4. Michigan: The balanced offense hasn’t been fluent, with poor three-point shooting (28% in two games) and leading scorer Mo Wagner (14.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg) averaging 8.5 points. Michigan has been one of the least impressive Sweet 16 teams; yet its title chances are still high based on the overall product.
5. Kansas: In reality, Kansas has overachieved given its lack of size and perimeter shooting. Big 12 player of the year Devonte’ Graham (17.4 ppg, 7.5 apg) makes this team tick. As usual, Graham and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk will need to shoot well. Combo guard Malik Newman’s 28 points in a win over Seton Hall couldn’t have come at a better time.
6. Texas A&M: The Aggies’ imposing front line of Tyler Davis, Robert Williams and DJ Hogg can wreak havoc. While other teams need their guards to excel to win, Texas A&M has used a frontcourt formula while limiting two of the best guard-oriented teams — Providence and North Carolina.
7. Clemson: The Tigers weren’t hot entering the tournament, but they are now. Hot shooting and solid all-around defense are the keys in two blowout wins. Senior guard Gabe DeVoe had 22 points in both.
8. Texas Tech: Guarding the perimeter is a strong suit, with the Red Raiders ranking 14th in the nation in field goal percentage.
9. West Virginia: This team forces a lot of turnovers but likely won’t have the same type of success against Villanova’s guards. All-American guard Jevon Carter frustrated Oklahoma’s Trae Young, Kansas’ Graham and Texas Tech’s Evans in Big 12 play. WVU will need Carter’s perimeter shooting to win.
10. Purdue: Purdue would be way higher on this list if 7-footer Isaac Haas weren’t hurt, but the way the Boilermakers showed resolve in a Sweet 16-clinching victory over Butler provides promise. Matt Haarms, Haas’ 7-foot replacement, might be the biggest X factor of the Sweet 16.
11. Loyola-Chicago: There’s no superstar, and that’s by design. Coach Porter Moser has had two players — Donte Ingram and Clayton Custer — nail buzzerbeaters. And he has three or four more capable of doing it in another close-game situation.
12. Nevada: Caleb Martin and Cody Martin, 6-7 twins with multidimensional skill sets, give Nevada a dangerous 1-2 punch. One key stat: The Wolf Pack rank second nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio. Taking care of the ball bodes well in March.
13. Gonzaga: Freshman Zach Norvell Jr. has been on an absolute tear and gives the Zags, much less talented than last year’s national runner-up team, a puncher’s chance. Johnathan Williams is a 6-9 forward who can pose major matchup problems. Rui Hachimura’s 25 points off the bench against Ohio State showed that coach Mark Few has a bigger arsenal than expected.
14. Florida State: FSU dispatched Xavier thanks to an 18-4 run that started on defense. The Seminoles have the deepest bench of the remaining teams.
15. Kansas State: There was a lot to take from a defensively sound win vs. UMBC. Barry Brown and Dean Wade will have to shoot well for K-State to advance.
16. Syracuse: Only three players can score, and no matter how great the vaunted zone is, there’s only so much Tyus Battle (19.3 ppg) can do.