Our view: In Syria, don’t snatch defeat from jaws of victory
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is on the brink of defeat. And the war against the ISIS caliphate is being won with a relatively small investment of U.S. troops (about 5,000 in Iraq and
2,000 in Syria) and a comparatively low number of U.S. combat deaths (14 so far).
The success of the anti-ISIS strategy, launched by President Obama and accelerated by President Trump, reflects hard, bloody lessons from 17 years of battling resilient insurgencies in the Middle East and South Asia.
In both Iraq and Syria, local allies have done most of the fighting and dying in the battle against ISIS, with advisory assistance and all-important air support from U.S.-led forces. In Iraq, the local allies included Iraqi security forces and Kurdish Peshmerga. In Syria, they included Syrian Arab and Kurdish fighters, a force of 60,000.
So with ISIS on the ropes, is it time to “bring our troops back home,” as Trump promised this week?
Such a step would be premature, as Trump’s military and diplomatic advisers are cautioning him. A crucial lesson of America’s involvement in the region is that a conflict isn’t over the moment the shooting subsides:
❚ In Afghanistan, after U.S.-supported mujahedin fighters drove the Soviets out in 1989, American interest evaporated and the resulting vacuum helped lead to civil war, the Taliban, al-Qaeda and thousands slaughtered in New York and Washington on 9/11.
❚ In Iraq, after the United States pulled out in 2011, the barbarous Islamic State filled the void, and more than
1,000 people were killed in attacks ISIS launched or inspired in America, Europe and elsewhere.
❚ In Syria, stabilization and security are needed to prevent ISIS from reemerging. Water and electricity have to be turned on, housing rebuilt, and fam- ilies returned to neighborhoods. Before that, mountains of rubble must be cleared, and improvised explosive devices deactivated. Coalition forces found bombs rigged in nearly every structure in Raqqa, the liberated former capital of the Islamic State.
The situation in war-fractured Syria remains hideously complex. U.S. troops and negotiators also represent a buffer against the dominating influence of Moscow, a murderous Russianbacked regime in Damascus, the growing regional threat of Iran, and the potential for major violence between Turkey and Syrian Kurds.
Trump is correct that neighboring Arab nations should do more to defray the costs of stabilization. But he’d be wrong to telegraph U.S. intentions by putting an artificial timetable on withdrawal, something he has roundly criticized his predecessor for doing in other circumstances.
White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters Wednesday that Trump would ultimately rely on commanders and troops “on the ground” to determine when it’s appropriate to leave Syria. That, rather than a hasty pullout, is the best way to preserve hard-won gains against ISIS.