200,000 dead in the US from virus
One projection shows 378,000 dead by January
COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have outpaced projections made as recently as May, when experts predicted 180,000 fatalities by October. Now, as the U.S. reaches another tragic milestone in the pandemic, that model is warning of 378,000 U.S. deaths by January. “It’s hard for me to think of a positive scenario where things are going to get better in October and November,” says Dr. John Swartzberg of the University of California, Berkeley.
The USA reached yet another dark milestone Tuesday: 200,000 coronavirus deaths.
As states grapple with opening restaurants, small businesses and schools, cases are peaking in Montana, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming, according to a USA TODAY analysis of Johns Hopkins data. Social distancing fatigue and contention over mask wearing threaten to compound COVID-19 cases and deaths as the year goes on.
In March, President Donald Trump said keeping the death toll at 100,000 to 200,000 people would indicate that his administration had “done a very good job.” As the number continued to climb, Trump sought to reshape the significance of the death tally.
“If we didn’t do our job, it would be three and a half, two and a half, maybe 3 million people,” Trump said Friday, leaning on extreme projections of what could have happened if nothing were done to fight the pandemic. “We have done a phenomenal job with respect to COVID-19.”
COVID-19 deaths outpaced projections made as recently as May, when experts at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predicted about 180,000 deaths by October. That model predicts 378,000 deaths by January. The USA reached 100,000 cases in May.
Public health experts are concerned more lives are at risk as the country nears the beginning of flu season, which is associated with tens of thousands of deaths each year. Influenza presents very similar symptoms to COVID-19.
“It’s hard for me to think of a positive scenario where things are going to get better in October and November,” said John Swartzberg, professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at the University of CaliforniaBerkeley. “I don’t see behavior changing adequately. I don’t see testing ramping up. I see political winds continue to be oppressive to doing the right things.”
The return of students to schools and colleges, along with the potential toll of influenza and easing of restrictions, creates a worrisome scenario for public health experts.
Absent readily available coronavirus testing with quick results, still a major hurdle across much of the country, could result in a “twindemic” that could overwhelm health care.
As of Tuesday, the U.S. had nearly 6.9 million cases of coronavirus. Contributing: Jorge L. Ortiz and Joshua Bote, USA TODAY; Julie Pace, The Associated Press Health and patient safety coverage at USA TODAY is made possible in part by a grant from the Masimo Foundation for Ethics, Innovation and Competition in Healthcare. The Masimo Foundation does not provide editorial input.