Forecast Becomes More Precise
The Center of Hydrometeorological Service under the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Uzbekistan introduces new methods and technologies for forecasting natural and climatic phenomena. Visual observations of natural phenomena and signs have already given the way to compilation of climate models and analysis of data obtained from specialized satellites and ultramodern sensors installed in different parts of the world. The modern hydrometeorological equipment introduced in Uzbekistan allows increasing the efficiency and accuracy of forecasting natural and climatic phenomena.
According to the First Deputy Minister for Emergency Situations of Uzbekistan K.Aripov, the task of Uzhydromet is continuous monitoring of all changes occurring in nature and timely warning of production workers about these changes. Daily, the Hydrometeorological Service produces several types of analytical and prognostic researches, the use of which gives a significant economic effect to individual climate-dependent economy sectors of our country.
Particular attention is paid to monitoring of dangerous climatic phenomena, which is carried out through all modern types of observations and research.
-Over the past few years, three new weather radars have been installed, the range of which covers the entire territory of Uzbekistan, said the head of the Tashkent Aviation Weather Station A. Zainiddinova. These devices are able to detect the presence of clouds, thunderstorms and hail foci, which made it possible to improve the accuracy of aviation forecasts.
In the winter period, storm warnings are issued with a certain probability of occurrence of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena. Each warning is preceded by the work of dozens of specialists from Uzhydromet. They collect, critically monitor and analyze primary or finished prognostic information, introduce it into computed prognostic systems, where accurate calculations are made.
-Operational data collection, their systematization and transfer for further analysis play a vital role in hydrometeorology, says A.Soloveichik, a head of the information and technical department of Meteoinfosistem. - This year, only in Karakalpakstan our office built ten modern automatic hydrometeorological stations where the newest sensors and measuring instruments are installed. We also implemented GPRS-technologies in our data transmission system, which allows us to exchange information via mobile networks. This project was implemented in Karakalpakstan, where in addition to the main data transmission channel, a backup based on GPRS technologies was added.
Despite the successes in hydrodynamic modeling and the system of data assimilation in recent decades, large-scale models have various systematic errors in a number of regions of the earth and it is not easy to establish the nature of them. Errors will also be made in the description of physical processes in the atmosphere, for example, cloudiness. In all leading prognostic centers, various approaches are being developed to reduce this taxonomy, primarily by increasing the spatial resolution of models.
“This could involve using regional hydrodynamic models,” said I. Zaitsev, deputy head of the Hydrometeorological Service of the Center for Hydrometeorological Service. “Within the framework of the World Bank project “Modernization of hydrometeorological services in Central Asian countries”, we have gained access to new technologies of mesoscale forecasting. Introduction of them will allow preparing more detailed forecasts reflecting climate change in a particular region. As part of the project, a powerful specialized computer for complex calculations will be installed in Uzgidromet. Uzhydromet, as a regional hydrometeorological center, will disseminate the received data to all participating countries of the project.”