Fore­cast Be­comes More Pre­cise

Uzbekistan Today (English) - - SOCIAL ORBIT -

The Cen­ter of Hy­drom­e­te­o­ro­log­i­cal Ser­vice un­der the Min­istry of Emer­gency Sit­u­a­tions of Uzbek­istan in­tro­duces new meth­ods and tech­nolo­gies for fore­cast­ing nat­u­ral and cli­matic phe­nom­ena. Vis­ual ob­ser­va­tions of nat­u­ral phe­nom­ena and signs have al­ready given the way to com­pi­la­tion of cli­mate models and anal­y­sis of data ob­tained from spe­cial­ized satel­lites and ul­tra­mod­ern sen­sors in­stalled in dif­fer­ent parts of the world. The mod­ern hy­drom­e­te­o­ro­log­i­cal equip­ment in­tro­duced in Uzbek­istan al­lows in­creas­ing the ef­fi­ciency and ac­cu­racy of fore­cast­ing nat­u­ral and cli­matic phe­nom­ena.

Ac­cord­ing to the First Deputy Min­is­ter for Emer­gency Sit­u­a­tions of Uzbek­istan K.Aripov, the task of Uzhy­dromet is con­tin­u­ous mon­i­tor­ing of all changes oc­cur­ring in na­ture and timely warn­ing of pro­duc­tion work­ers about th­ese changes. Daily, the Hy­drom­e­te­o­ro­log­i­cal Ser­vice pro­duces sev­eral types of an­a­lyt­i­cal and prog­nos­tic re­searches, the use of which gives a sig­nif­i­cant eco­nomic ef­fect to in­di­vid­ual cli­mate-de­pen­dent econ­omy sec­tors of our coun­try.

Par­tic­u­lar at­ten­tion is paid to mon­i­tor­ing of dan­ger­ous cli­matic phe­nom­ena, which is car­ried out through all mod­ern types of ob­ser­va­tions and re­search.

-Over the past few years, three new weather radars have been in­stalled, the range of which cov­ers the en­tire ter­ri­tory of Uzbek­istan, said the head of the Tashkent Avi­a­tion Weather Sta­tion A. Zainid­di­nova. Th­ese de­vices are able to de­tect the pres­ence of clouds, thun­der­storms and hail foci, which made it pos­si­ble to im­prove the ac­cu­racy of avi­a­tion fore­casts.

In the win­ter pe­riod, storm warn­ings are is­sued with a cer­tain prob­a­bil­ity of oc­cur­rence of dan­ger­ous hy­drom­e­te­o­ro­log­i­cal phe­nom­ena. Each warn­ing is pre­ceded by the work of dozens of spe­cial­ists from Uzhy­dromet. They col­lect, crit­i­cally mon­i­tor and an­a­lyze pri­mary or fin­ished prog­nos­tic in­for­ma­tion, in­tro­duce it into com­puted prog­nos­tic sys­tems, where ac­cu­rate cal­cu­la­tions are made.

-Op­er­a­tional data col­lec­tion, their sys­tem­ati­za­tion and trans­fer for fur­ther anal­y­sis play a vi­tal role in hy­drom­e­te­o­rol­ogy, says A.Solove­ichik, a head of the in­for­ma­tion and tech­ni­cal depart­ment of Me­teoin­fo­s­is­tem. - This year, only in Karakalpak­stan our of­fice built ten mod­ern au­to­matic hy­drom­e­te­o­ro­log­i­cal sta­tions where the new­est sen­sors and mea­sur­ing in­stru­ments are in­stalled. We also im­ple­mented GPRS-tech­nolo­gies in our data trans­mis­sion sys­tem, which al­lows us to ex­change in­for­ma­tion via mo­bile net­works. This project was im­ple­mented in Karakalpak­stan, where in ad­di­tion to the main data trans­mis­sion chan­nel, a backup based on GPRS tech­nolo­gies was added.

De­spite the suc­cesses in hy­dro­dy­namic mod­el­ing and the sys­tem of data as­sim­i­la­tion in re­cent decades, large-scale models have var­i­ous sys­tem­atic er­rors in a num­ber of re­gions of the earth and it is not easy to estab­lish the na­ture of them. Er­rors will also be made in the de­scrip­tion of phys­i­cal pro­cesses in the at­mos­phere, for ex­am­ple, cloudi­ness. In all lead­ing prog­nos­tic cen­ters, var­i­ous ap­proaches are be­ing de­vel­oped to re­duce this tax­on­omy, pri­mar­ily by in­creas­ing the spa­tial res­o­lu­tion of models.

“This could in­volve us­ing re­gional hy­dro­dy­namic models,” said I. Zait­sev, deputy head of the Hy­drom­e­te­o­ro­log­i­cal Ser­vice of the Cen­ter for Hy­drom­e­te­o­ro­log­i­cal Ser­vice. “Within the frame­work of the World Bank project “Mod­ern­iza­tion of hy­drom­e­te­o­ro­log­i­cal ser­vices in Cen­tral Asian coun­tries”, we have gained ac­cess to new tech­nolo­gies of mesoscale fore­cast­ing. In­tro­duc­tion of them will al­low pre­par­ing more de­tailed fore­casts re­flect­ing cli­mate change in a par­tic­u­lar re­gion. As part of the project, a pow­er­ful spe­cial­ized com­puter for com­plex cal­cu­la­tions will be in­stalled in Uzgidromet. Uzhy­dromet, as a re­gional hy­drom­e­te­o­ro­log­i­cal cen­ter, will dis­sem­i­nate the re­ceived data to all par­tic­i­pat­ing coun­tries of the project.”

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