Airbus not likely to widen lead in output over Boeing
FRANKFURT, Germany — In the latest round of their decades-long battle for dominance in commercial aircraft, Europe’s Airbus established a clear sales lead over Boeing even before the U.S. company encountered more fallout from manufacturing problems and ongoing safety concerns.
Airbus has outpaced Boeing for five straight years in plane orders and deliveries, and it just reported a 28% quarterly increase in net profit. It was already winning market share by beating Boeing to develop a line of fuel-efficient, midsize aircraft that are cheaper for airlines to fly.
And now Boeing is facing a government-mandated production cap on its best-selling plane.
Yet the European company is unlikely to extend its advantage in the Airbus-Boeing duopoly much further despite having customers clamoring for more commercial aircraft, according to aviation analysts. The reason: Airbus already is making planes as fast as it can and has a backlog of more than 8,600 orders.
Its ability to leverage Boeing’s troubles therefore is “very limited,” according to Jonathan Berger, managing director at Alton Aviation Consultancy. Between strained supply chains and the long lead times for a hugely complex and highly regulated product, a jetliner ordered from Airbus today may not arrive until the end of the decade.
Boeing also has a huge order backlog, for more than 5,660 commercial planes. The mismatch between the post-COVID demand for flights and the aircraft supply pipeline is bad news for travelers as well as airlines.
“This has been an incredibly strong market recovery, and people need more jets than they’re getting,” said Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory. “And until they get those jets, you don’t have enough capacity. Guess what goes up? Ticket prices.”
At the beginning of the year, Boeing seemed finally to be recovering from two crashes of 737 Max jets in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people in Indonesia and Ethiopia. Then, on Jan. 5, a door plug blew out of an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9, and the company has been reeling since.
Boeing has since slowed manufacturing on the orders of the Federal Aviation Administration. It lost $355 million in the first quarter because of a decline in aircraft deliveries and compensation it paid to airlines for a temporary grounding of Max 9s. The Max was Boeing’s answer to Airbus’ A320 family of planes.
Airbus, which is registered in the Netherlands but has its main headquarters in France, is taking a conspicuously cautious and even modest stance toward its recent success and its rival’s woes. CEO Guillaume Faury has said he’s “not happy” about Boeing’s troubles and that they’re not good for the industry as a whole.