INDEC: Economic activity fell 6.8% in March year-on-year
Economic
activity collapsed 6.8 percent in March interannually – an 11th consecutive month of decline – and fell 1.3% percent with respect to February, the INDEC national statistics bureau revealed this week.
The economy has contracted by 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2019, INDEC revealed, posting data for its Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE). The bureau’s monthly indicator anticipates the evolution of GDP, with those figures dispersed later after more thorough study.
With the exception of agriculture (which increased by 10.8 percent in March), education (improved by one percent), and healthcare services (up 0.2 percent), all other sectors recorded negative growth.
Financial services, which decreased by 13.9 percent, and retail and wholesale trade, which dropped 14.6 percent, recorded their biggest drops in three years. Manufacuting activity shrank by 13.2 percent, with construction down 7.1 percent.
Argentina entered recession in 2018, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrinking 2.5 percent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which handed Argentina a US$56-billion credit line amid a currency crisis that began last March, previously predicted that the economy would contract by 1.2 percent this year, but recently said it would likely correct that number to a more negative outlook.
INDEC’s seasonally adjusted index, measured month by month, in January registered a rise of 0.5 percent compared to December 2018, and 0.1 percent in FebruarycomparedtoJanuary, but the trend slowed down to record a fall of 1.3 percent in March compared to February.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted this week that the economy will be able to recover from its deep recession thanks to exports, although they added that GDP will nonetheless contrac t by 1.8 percent this year.
However, OECD officials also revised its forecast for 2020, now estimating that A rgentina’s economy will leave the recession behind “with ease,” to grow by 2.1 percent.
“Given that domestic demand remains low, it is expected that exports will drive the recovery and that, throughout 2019, quarterly growth rates will return to positive territory,” said the agency, which is made up of 36 nations and based in Paris.
However, the OECD noted that “the decrease in international trade flows could limit the global demand for Argentine exports.”