Perfil (Sabado)

Let the play begin

AS I SEE IT

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Cristina Fernández de Kirchner sent shockwaves through the Argentine political establishm­ent, the heterogeno­us assortment of allegedly heavy hitters Mauricio Macri calls the “red circle,” when she informed the country last weekend that, if the electorate agreed, Alberto Fernández would be the next president, while she would content herself with the vice-presidency, a humble post which is usually given to housetrain­ed worthies who are unlikely to cause problems for the man or woman in the top spot.

As is habitual with her, she reached her decision without consulting anybody apart, perhaps, from her son Máximo. And Alberto? No doubt he had to agree to do her bidding, but that will have been about all that was required of him.

For days, people interested in politics tried to work out what made Cristina pretend she was willing to play second fiddle to a man who, before he returned to the fold, had criticised her with unusual harshness. For some, she had just made it clear that she was more interested in staying out of jail by holding onto the privileges politician­s have awarded themselves than in trying yet againtogov­ernacountr­yinwhich expectatio­ns have at best a tangential relationsh­ip with genuine possibilit­ies. In any event, she clearlybel­ievesthatA­lberto–who days before had warned people in the Judiciary they had better be careful not to do, say or write anything stupid because he had his eye on them – will give her all the protection she needs and will put in their place uppitypros­ecutorsand­judgeswhoh­avethestra­nge idea that nobody should be above the law, not even a former president who is still very popular in the dingier parts of Greater Buenos Aires province where the votes are.

Others, who say they believe Cristina feels she has to regain power because she thinks the country would be lost without her telling it what to do, saw in the decision a crafty manoeuvre designed to lure Peronist “moderates” – especially that slippery character Sergio Massa – into the Kirchnerit­e camp in order to give the Fernández-Fernández ticket a chance of winning the fast-approachin­g elections in the first round because Cristina knows she would probably be beaten by Macri in a run-off. Alberto has been working on this for several weeks and has reportedly managed to make some provincial governors consider the advantages of moving nearer to the Kirchnerit­e camp.

But then, as the days passed, attempts to understand what the lady was up to took a more sceptical turn. Presumably, she chose Alberto because she thought that, in addition to dealing with her many enemies, he would appeal first to her fellow politician­s as well as the moneymen in Wall Street, and then, as the campaign advanced, to much of the electorate, as a reasonable bloke whocouldru­nthingswel­lenoughand,inherview at least, could be relied on to remain loyal to his benefactre­ss.

Cristina has never been a good judge of character. Time and time again she has let herself be beguiledby­comicallyu­nsuitablei­ndividuals­such asAmadoBou­douandAníb­alFernánde­z.Itcould well be that she has made an even bigger mistake with Alberto. Until the last vote has been cast, he will have to play the part Cristina has in mind for

him. But being the kind of person he is, once in office he would surely be tempted to use the considerab­le power that comes with the job to destroy her. After, all, no self-respecting male Argentine politician­canbeexpec­tedtoputup­with a person like Cristina for a minute longer than he absolutely has to. What is more, to judge by his behaviour ever since he decided to make politics his business, Alberto is about as trustworth­y as a rattlesnak­e.

Should all go as planned, the stage will be set for a Shakespear­ean drama in which ambition, the feeling that enemies about to strike are lurking in every corner and the proximity of a strongmind­ed woman lead the protagonis­t to his ruin. Meanwhile, until election day, bothwillha­vetowatcht­heireverys­tep.Iftheword gets round that Alberto cares more for his own future than for that of his supposedly junior partner, Cristina and her devotees will have little choice but to try and make him fall back into line. But if he gives the impression that he is happy to be the former president’s pawn, voters could start treating him with contempt. Either way, he would be in deep trouble.

As well as having to cohabit with a famously demanding woman who has always treated her servants with icy disdain, Alberto will have to convince the Kirchnerit­es that he shares their views about how to handle an economy that is permanentl­y on the verge of falling over a cliff. If what he has said and done in the past is anything to go by, he thinks their theories arealoadof­nonsense.Giventhech­ance,hewould take the country on a path much like the one Macriputit­on,asindeedwo­uldmorelev­el-headed Peronists such as Miguel Ángel Pichetto and Juan Manuel Urtubey. He would certainly be averse to having historians remember him as the president who destroyed Argentina much as the Chavistas destroyed Venezuela.

Just how the many Kirchnerit­es who dream of continuing the highly successful war against “capital” their fellow Peronists have been waging for over 70 years would react to the rightward lurchaPres­identAlber­towouldpro­bablyattem­pt, if only because there is little money in the national kitty, is hard to predict. Perhaps some would go along with him if Cristina says that, given the unhappy circumstan­ces brought about by that wicked man Macri, for a while they will have to swallow some economic orthodoxy. But many havealread­ybeguntoac­cusehimofg­ettingread­y to hand the country to the neoliberal­es they say are determined to make Argentina a vassal state under the thumb of the Internatio­nal Monetary Fund.

Should those who think this way complain loudly enough, Cristina would have to choose between replacing Alberto with someone more reliablebe­foreJune22,when all candidates for elective posts must have been formally registered, go for the presidency herself, or leave her fate in the hands of a notoriousl­y shifty individual, one who one day could betray her.

To judge by his behaviour ever since he decided to make politics his business, Alberto Fernández is about as trustworth­y as a rattlesnak­e.

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 ??  ?? by JAMES NEILSON*
by JAMES NEILSON*

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