As crisis bites, Argentina’s young adults again face risk of jobless future
More than 20% of Argentines aged under 30 are unemployed and the situation looks set to worsen in the coming months, with joblessness disproportionately affecting women.
As the indicators that measure Argentina’s stuttering economy contract and decline, one figure in particular is impacting the next generation more than any other: youth unemployment.
More often than not, when economic turmoil strikes, it’s the newest entries on the job market who feel the effects of a recession first.
When it comes to the rest of Latin
America, Argentina has long posted above average rates for youth unemployment. Yet the country’s ongoing spate of market bedlam has pushed the figure’s rate of growth to a speed not seen since the economic depression of the late 1990s.
In the first quarter of 2019, unemployment for Argentines between the ages of 14 and 29 rose to 20.8 percent, according to the INDEC national statistics bureau – more than double the general rate (10.1 percent).
Compared to the rest of the region, Argentina’s rate is second only to Brazil, a country of a far larger population where youth unemployment currently stands at 29 percent, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), an agency of the United Nations.
The ILO’s most recent figure for youth unemployment in Argentina surpasses that of INDEC’s: 25.2 percent in 2018.
The bureau’s figures do show a decline in joblessness during the first two years of President Mauricio Macri’s administration, dipping to 15.1 percent by the end of 2017. Yet the ILO shows it increasing during the same period, reaching 23.2 percent by the end of Macri’s second year.
The outlook for young people does not look good at present. With Argentina gripped by a crisis that has seen the peso weaken, inflation soar and experts predict the economy will contract by 2.5 percent this year and 1.1 percent next, joblessness looks set to worsen.
At present, the rate of youth unemployment is not only at its highest yet during the Macri government, it’s higher than the initial years of former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s two terms in office.
Argentina has also lost the gains it has made since the 20012002 economic crisis, according to ILO data, which shows that between 2002 and 2009, youth unemployment experienced a 48.6 percent decline.
Government statistics from 2009 until 2015 remain unclear, however, given the lack of independence held by INDEC during the later years of the Kirchnerite administrations.
‘MAJOR PROBLEM’
In spite of the present turmoil, experts say youth unemployment has always been a problem.
Agustín Morad, a former coordinator of youth employment for the Labour Ministry between 2016 and 2018, explained that while high levels of young people out of work debilitate countries in Europe and Latin America alike, the problem has persisted in Argentina in recent years.
“Especially with some groups it remains very serious,” Morad told the Times. “For young women, it’s a major problem. For young people from vulnerable sectors, it’s a major problem. For indigenous populations, it’s still a major problem.”
Warning signs are continuing to appear. Of late, the rate of joblessness has increased at a rate not seen in recent memory. In the last year and a half, the figure jumped 37.9 percent. By way of comparison, between 1998 and 2002, at the height of another major economic crisis, youth unemployment increased by 48 percent, peaking at 41 percent, according to ILO data.
For José Florito, the coordinator of social protection for CIPPEC, a leading Buenos Aires-based thinktank, Argentina’s recurring economic crises explain the employment gap between young and older individuals.
“When this process happens, which in Argentina is so frequent, [with] such little macroeconomic stabilit y, it’s young people that suffer layoffs the most,” Florito said.
While reliable figures for youth job loss are not available, the Argentine economy between June 2018 and 2019 lost 172,000 registered jobs.
For many unemployed young people, searching for work affects not just their prospects for future employment, but the daily survival of their families.
“It’s obvious that this has the dynamic of a vicious cycle,” Florito added. “This affects young people as much as their families, and their capacity to earn income or pay for food and public services.”
Statistics for Argentina’s job market in the second quarter of the year are not due to be released until September 19. But given the ongoing spate of economic turmoil, the most recent spell of which was triggered by Macri’s loss in the August 11 PASO primaries, a grim outlook looms for young people searching for work in the immediate future.
PLACEMENTS
Despite the current sour economic landscape, Morad said that during his time at the Labour Ministry, the Macri administration achieved impressive gains with the government’s main youth employment programme Jóvenes Con Más y Mejor Trabajo (“Young People with More and Better Work”).
Started in 2008 and financed in-part by the World Bank, the programme quadrupled its job placement for young people from 3,000 to 11,000 under the first three years of President Macri’s government, according In the first quarter of 2019, unemployment for Argentines between the ages of 14 and 29 rose to 20.8 percent, according to INDEC.