NEILSON: WHEN WEAKNESS IS STRENGTH
I nthe United States and Argentina, which imported the institutional arrangements adopted by the “founding fathers” up north, a president with almost monarchical powers is often accompanied by an individual who, like Dan Quayle or Isabelita Perón, is widely regarded as being utterly incapable of replacing him should an unkind destiny remove him from office. This is certainly not the case today. In both countries, there are many who think the serving president is not up to the job, but want him to soldier on because, for very different reasons, they fear the woman who, were he to quit, would be first in the line of succession.
Here, it is taken for granted that Alberto Fernández would never have got anywhere near the presidency had it not been for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s awareness, back in 2019, that so many people were against her she would be hard put to defeat even Mauricio Macri in a run-off. As a front man, she needed an individual who could play the role of a benign moderate and decided that Alberto – despite having been one of her fiercest critics – could be relied on to make an effort to do her bidding. It was a smart move and events would prove that, whatever her other failings, she was a good judge of character. Since taking office, Alberto has gone out of his way to obey her orders; on the few occasions on which he has seemed reluctant to do so, his alleged stroppiness has made headline news.
In the United States, Joe Biden surprised many when he picked Kamala Harris to be his running mate. Experts attributed the choice to his desire to be accompanied by a woman, which would please the vociferous feminist lobby, and a person “of colour” whose presence would help placate the race-obsessed wing of the Democrat Party. Is this what Biden himself was thinking? Perhaps, but it is also possible that machiavellian members of the team which supported him had been suitably impressed by Kamala’s notably lacklustre performance in the Democrat primaries and assumed that she would quickly make herself so unpopular that the thought of having her taking charge of the presidency would outrage Republicans and frighten many of the party faithful, with the result that her mere presence in the wings would make people overlook poor old Joe’s evident “cognitive” shortcomings. In politics, having an unprepossessing alternative at hand can be a big advantage.
Alberto may have all his faculties intact but, to judge from his performance, he is far less well qualified than he evidently believes himself to be. In addition to being the proud owner of a law degree and therefore entitled to put Dr before his name, a distinction he shares with a large proportion of his fellow politicians, he teaches law in the country’s top university. As he frequently reminds us, in his own eyes at least this makes him a full professor.
It was therefore disconcerting to find him in affect agreeing with some of his aides that the degrees he signed last year and were vigorously applied in an effort to slow down the spread of the coronavirus, were unconstitutional, and that the Penal Code articles alluding to what could be done in the event of the country getting hit by a pandemic should not be taken too literally. All this must have come as a pleasant surprise to the many thousands who face legal charges for flouting the rules he set out, but the relief they presumably feel is unlikely to help Alberto.
After it belatedly became known that, over a year ago, he had happily celebrated the first girlfriend’s birthday in the Olivos presidential retreat when much of the rest of the population was confined to quarters under gunpoint, he set off a political storm big enough to induce him to say he would not let himself be ousted for “making a mistake” and, in any case, people should not forget that he is just an ordinary bloke. Needless to say, his attempt to wriggle free from the sticky web entangling him by making what he imagined were fine legal distinctions only a law professor could understand did nothing to enhance his reputation. They merely made him look shifty and invited ridicule. What is more, some hawkish members of the opposition thought that by behaving in such a way he had given them solid grounds for impeachment.
In many countries, a prime minister or even president who behaved like Alberto would soon be out on his or her ear, but right now Argentina is not one of them. Were Alberto to go, he would be replaced immediately by another accredited lawyer, Vice-president Cristina, who as far as the opposition leaders are concerned, would be far worse. In the Argentine version of the political game, Alberto’s evident weakness makes his position stronger as, in the United States, Biden’s is buttressed by the knowledge that, were he to step down for some reason, he would be succeeded straight away by Kamala Harris.
For several years now, Cristina has retained the backing of between a quarter and a third of the electorate. This has allowed her to dominate the Peronist movement, but by itself has not been enough to get enough votes to win an election outright. Were there clear evidence that she could do this, Alberto would be made dispensable, but there have been no signs that support for her is increasing. On the contrary, it would appear that more and more people are growing tired of the current set-up and would like to see both Cristina and her arch-enemy Mauricio call it a day so a new – well, relatively new – crop of political leaders could take their place.
As for Biden, he has his back up against the wall. The fallout from the overhasty and appallingly planned withdrawal from Afghanistan has hurt him badly and even newspapers and television channels which for long overlooked his deficiencies because if nothing else he was not Donald Trump, have taken to criticising his performance and drawing attention to the “cognitive” disabilities they can blame on his advancing age, something which up to then they had left to supporters of his predecessor.
However, this does not mean they think Kamala Harris would do better. Even those who are willing to give her the benefit of every conceivable doubt and would dearly like to see a woman “of colour” up there as commander-in-chief, suspect that once in office she would put off so many people that the Republicans, with or without Trump leading the charge, would make sweeping gains in the following elections, an eventuality which, needless to say, does not appeal to any of them.
In politics, having an unprepossessing alternative at hand can be a big advantage.
It will be a tough election for the pan-peronist coalition in the Province of Buenos Aires.
In the context of Argentina’s funky political system, a pre-election will be held ahead of the real thing. This vote, supposedly an obligatory primary to force all political parties to partake and thus minimise the fragmentation of parties to serve individuals, has the particularity of actually having a very real impact on the election. In 2019, for example, the pre-electoral beating suffered by Mauricio Macri’s ticket at the hands of Alberto Fernández sparked a damaging run on the peso, which rang the death knell for the ruling coalition’s expectations for re-election. The unexpected result, with Alberto and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner taking nearly 48 percent of the vote compared to the the ticket headed by Macri and running-mate Miguel Ángel Pichetto’s 31.8 percent, led to an aggressive devaluation to the tune of 30 percent, with the peso-dollar exchange rate going from around 46 pesos per greenback to 60. Yet this pernicious situation gave Macri’s team the inspiration to go on a series of massive rallies dubbed the “Yes We Can” campaign, which helped them recover in the real election where they took 41 percent of the vote and consolidated themselves as the true opposition.
This time around, we have a few added quirks and complications. First and foremost, we are still in the midst of a global pandemic which threatens to come back with a fury if the Delta variant manages to break loose and take over. After enduring one of the world’s toughest lockdowns, many Argentines remain scared of getting infected with Covid-19. While 60 percent of the population has received at least one dose of their Covid-19 vaccine, less than 30 percent have received both doses, particularly given shortages of the Sputnik V and Astrazeneca jabs. Furthermore, the months-long quarantine has impacted a dreary population that has also suffered an aggressive economic contraction and a stubbornly high inflation rate, leading to the growth of anti-system candidates such as José Luis Espert and Javier Milei, who could see their spoils grow from the meagre 1.5 percent of 2019, when they came in below the left (represented by Nicolás del Caño) and the far-right (Juan José Gómez Centurión). To add to the uncertainty, a full one million youngsters between the ages of 16 and 24 will be debutantes. That’s about 20 percent of the electorate.
What impact will this year’s PASO primaries have on the upcoming election? There’s 127 seats in the Chamber of Deputies at stake (half of the total), along with a third of the
Senate, or 24 seats. At a national level, the re-branded opposition, Juntos, is defending 60 seats earned in the 2017 midterm elections in the Chamber of Deputies, up against the ruling Frente de Todos’ 51 seats. In the Senate, the ruling coalition is defending 15 seats against the opposition’s eight. The “mother of all battles,” as it’s called, is the Province of Buenos Aires. Back in 2017, President Macri celebrated a victory over none other than Mrs. Fernández de Kirchner in the country’s most electoral district, where Kirchnerism had built its bastion of power. With the unknown Esteban Bullrich, Cambiemos took 34 percent of the vote, virtually tied with Mrs. Fernández de Kirchner but for all practical purposes delivering her a tough defeat. The psychological effect completely deflated the actual election, supposedly burying Cristina’s future political career and actually helping Bullrich extend his lead to four percentage points, taking 41 percent of the vote in the actual election. The end of Cristina wasn’t an accurate projection, of course.
It will be a tough election for the pan-peronist coalition led by the Fernandezes in the Province of Buenos Aires. Currently governed by Axel Kicillof, it is probably the region most castigated by the pandemic. The Buenos Aires metropolitan region (AMBA) which stretches from the capital out to the conurbano, was forced into the toughest and longest-lasting quarantine, while the number of cases and deaths still reached the highest in the nation. The economic impact of those lockdown measures were felt the hardest, given population density and the concentration of industrial jobs and the prevalence of poverty. President Alberto and his coalition’s unforced errors help erode the popularity of certain figures, while Macri being shoved aside — and former governor María Eugenia Vidal moving across the General Páz highway to compete in the City — by the opposition allows them to try out fresh candidates, like Deputy Mayor Diego Santilli and neurosurgeon Facundo Manes (who are actually facing off in primaries).
According to figures put together by Observatorio Electoral Consultores, the pan-peronist Frente de Todos front would attract some 36 percent of the vote in the PASO primaries, compared with 40 percent for the opposing Juntos. Yet, when measured individually, Victoria Tolosa Paz would take 36 percent of the vote compared to 26 percent for Santilli and 18 percent for Manes. Florencio Randazzo — a former interior minister under Cristina — would take some five percent while Espert would attract four percent. A full 11 percent of those surveyed indicated they remain undecided, a notable figure that surges above 20 percent for voters under 25 and 29 years of age.
Another poll put together by Giaccobe & Asociados indicates that the only two politicians with positive approval ratios in Buenos Aires Province are City Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and opposition hawk and former security minister Patricia Bullrich. President Fernández’s negative differential reached 41 percentage points, well above the minus 32 clocked in by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, minus 22 for Mauricio Macri and minus 21 for Kicillof. Beating them all is Sergio Massa at minus 46. Among the candidates, Santilli has the strongest position, with an even differential and a low figure for those who don’t know him, while both Tolosa Paz and Manes have negative differentials but higher figures for no recall of them as candidates. Giacobbe’s figures suggest the opposition would take 34 percent of the vote compared to 27.2 percent for the Frente de Todos, with 19.1 percent undecided voters.
Over the past few elections, pollsters have been getting it absolutely wrong, both in Argentina and around the world. Covid and the growth of anti-politics has thrown further obstacles at them, as no- one is really willing to make a call on the pre-election dance that are the PASOS. It seems counterintuitive to expect a strong election by the candidates responding to the Fernández-fernández tandem, but that doesn’t mean the opposition will be able to easily shake off the mantra of Macri and his economic meltdown.
Whatever happens, round two is just around the corner.