RACE TIGHTENS IN POLL ASSESSING LIKELY RUNOFF VOTERS

Brazil’s presidential race is still tightening according to a new opinion poll that takes into account voters most likely to show up on election day.

The Quaest poll published Wednesday confirmed a trend seen in other surveys this week that showed President Jair Bolsonaro’s overall momentum fading, but it also gauged the possible impact of abstention rates on Sunday’s run-off vote.

Quaest’s “likely voter” scenario had Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva getting 52.1 percent of valid votes, which excludes null and blank ballots, down from 52.8 percent last week. Bolsonaro gets 47.9 percent, up from 47.2 percent.

Considering total votes, Bolsonaro remains with 42 percent while Lula reached 48 percent, one percentage point more than in the previous week. All the changes fell within the survey’s margin of error.

Quaest is among major pollsters trying to somehow account for the impact of no-shows in the election. Large abstention rates tend to hurt Lula the most as low-income voters, who form a key part of the former president’s base of support, are more likely to not show up on election day.

“Abstention continues to be important and could reduce Lula’s advantage,” Felipe Nunes, the head of Quaest, wrote on Twitter.