Smaller parties ‘game-changers’
2024: ANC ‘IS ALREADY FALLING BELOW 50%’
We are headed towards a coalition government, warns political expert.
With the ANC electoral support set to drop considerably in the upcoming polls, South Africa could see a political reconfiguration after 2024, according to analysts. In the lowest vote share gained since 1994, the ANC won the 2019 elections with a reduced majority of 57.50% – down from 62.15% in the 2014 election – with the trend continuing to show a waning of its electoral support.
While the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) significantly grew its vote share – from 6.35% to 10.80% – the Democratic Alliance proportion of the vote also declined from 22.23% to 20.77%.
The Inkatha Freedom Party (from 2.40% to 3.38%) and the Freedom Front Plus (from 0.9% to 2.38%) also registered some major gains.
The Electoral Commission of South Africa has registered more than 500 political parties, with 17 enrolled over the past three months, and independent political analyst Sandile Swana said the fragmentation of opposition parties would not be a factor in the upcoming polls. He predicted the ANC may lose Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).
“Whether the opposition is fragmented or not, the ANC is already falling below 50% and we are headed towards a coalition government,” said Swana.
“There will no longer be one dominant party in power, but smaller parties working in collaboration in a government of national unity.
“The 2024 elections are going to see a reconfiguration of South African politics, as you see in the Joburg metro, where a mayor emerges from a smaller party.”
The ANC, he said, “has lost its eminent position in the country’s electoral landscape”.
“After the 2021 local government elections, we now know that voters no longer see the necessity of keeping the ANC in power – certainly not in Gauteng and KZN.
“The ANC has already lost the Western Cape, is going to lose Gauteng and is facing a defeat in KZN, because voters no longer think solutions of South Africa only come from the ruling party.
“Even those who believe in liberation politics, the new home of liberation politics has now become the EFF.
“The emergence of Ace Magashule’s African Congress for Transformation (ACT), poses a danger to the ANC in the Free State,” he said.
“If Magashule chooses to mount a formidable attack on the ANC in the Free State, with EFF’s Julius Malema doing the same, there will be big problems for the governing party.”
On the fragmentation of opposition parties, said Swana: “Our system of proportional representation favours the emergence of smaller parties – part of our constitutional architecture, making it possible for every opinion to be represented in parliament and in the provincial legislatures.”
University of Pretoria politics lecturer Roland Henwood said while there was yet no indication of ACT’s strength, “it may be another personality-driven and dominated party”.
He said voter apathy was likely to be “a key factor in the polls and will impact the big parties significantly, if turnout is low”.
Fragmentation, which he described as “a global trend”, would continue.
“Some may attract enough voters to gain seats in parliament and possibly influence a coalition formation, if it comes to that,” said Henwood.
Inclusive Society Institute chief executive officer Daryl Swanepoel said failure to resolve the Eskom crisis would impact on voter turnout, with 45% of the electorate not going to polling stations.