Seeking refuge
IT ISN’T ONLY the animals of Queensland’s cloud forests feeling the heat. Recent research by Professor Darren Crayn and colleagues from the Australian Tropical Herbarium and JCU has produced alarming predictions for the plants of these forests. The team found that nearly half the endemic tropical mountaintop plants they studied are unlikely to survive in their current locations past 2080. This work makes it clear that on Queensland’s mountaintops, we’re looking down the barrel at the wholesale alteration of entire ecosystems.
While significant changes have already occurred and the outlook for many plant and animal species appears grim, actions can still be taken to lessen the impact of climate change. Under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, most of the Wet Tropics’ endemics are at risk of extinction. But with a reasonable level of mitigation, through reducing greenhouse gas emissions, this extinction risk can be significantly lowered.
It will also be necessary to help species adapt to inevitable change. One option is to establish new protected areas. Research conducted at JCU has identified a number of key refuge areas that will remain cooler than average under climate change. Combining this information with predicted future species distributions meant scientists could identify areas of conservation importance that should be prioritised for protection. This research has already contributed to the establishment of Baldy Mountain Forest Reserve, one of Queensland’s newest protected areas.