Paul Newby
The year 2030 is shaping up to be a signi cant one. As anniversaries go, it will be 70 years since the Australian Touring Car Championship commenced, 60 years since the Holden Torana GTR XU-1 debuted and 50 years since arguably our most successful touring car, the Holden Commodore, hit the track. Not to be outdone for Ford fans, it will be 60 years since Allan Moffat’s rst win in the mighty Falcon GTHO.
However, 2030 is also the year where the UK government will ban new petrol and diesel powered motor vehicles in favour of electrical vehicles (EVs). That is less than nine years away.
Now, there is no indication that Australia will follow such an aggressive timeline. Indeed, for a country of so-called early adopters of new technology, we have lagged behind most western countries when it comes to sales of EVs (they accounted for 0.7% of the total market in 2020). The high costs of EVs, lack of government incentives and inadequate charging infrastructure are reasons for the slow uptake. Despite this, we are heading inexorably towards an EV future, whether we like it or not. We may not reach the 2030 European targets, but our roads will look markedly different by then.
Now don’t adjust your set, dear reader – this is not a column for Australian EV Monthly! However, the impacts of climate change will profoundly affect the way we live our lives and how we move around. For commuting, EVs will become a part of our lives. That doesn’t meant that our fossil fuel classic cars don’t have a future in this brave new world.
The Australian classic car movement, of which Australian muscle cars make up a signi cant part, is currently cresting a wave of popularity. Increasing values of even the most mundane classics have made restorations more viable and the industry that supports this has grown signi cantly over the years. Capital gains tax exemptions on classic vehicles sales have increased their allure as investments. A lot of high value classic cars are owned by selfmanaged superannuation funds.
The easing of restrictions of classic car use on historic registration, particularly here in NSW, has had a dramatic effect. As the membership secretary of a popular marque car club, I have seen this rst hand. Lapsed club members and those who have an aversion to joining car clubs have now joined up since Transport for NSW have allowed classic car use for up to 60 day a year outside of organised club events. Seen a lot of classic cars on the road lately? Well, that’s why.
Will classic cars still have a place in a largely EV world? I believe that they will, but it is very much dependent on three factors.
One is government legislation. This is not an insurmountable hurdle. The carbon footprint of classic cars as a percentage of total vehicle users on the road is miniscule.Yes, classic cars are heavy polluters but on the whole they are driven only occasionally, and over relatively short distances. Crucially, the classic car industry employs many people both directly and indirectly.
Fuel availability is a critical issue to the future of classic cars. It is unlikely the world will ever run out of fossil fuels, as was once predicted. However, demand will inevitably fall with the surge in EV use, and the economy of scales for producing fossil fuels will lead to higher bowser costs. The development of e-fuels – a synthetic fuel that promises lower carbon emissions – could help prolong the life of the internal combustion engine, but the efficiency of the production process is questionable and the nal product too expensive. Look for e-fuels to be used in Formula 1 in the not-too-distant future.
The most important factor in the future of classic car preservation is something we can control – intergenerational change. We’ve all heard stories about millennials having little or no interest in cars or even learning to drive. Are our children and our children’s children looking twice at a classic Ford Mustang or Holden Monaro, appreciating the throb of its V8 as it cruises down the road? It’s true we are excited by the cars that we grew up with – the Falcons, Toranas, Chargers and Commodores of yore – but does that mean our children and their children will continue the interest? Maybe, but the signs are not great.
We have been here before. Interest in vintage cars has largely declined with the exception of some sporting and blue chip marques like MG, Alfa Romeo and Bugatti. For classic Australian muscle cars, the ongoing cache for cars with the initials of GT/GTHO, GTS, XU-1, A9X, E38 and E49 are assured, but the rest? The future of our hobby lies with the next generation, and the jury is still out on that one…