Population to Peak in a Decade

Recently the Institute of Population and Labor Economics and Social Sciences Academic Press, both under the umbrella of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, released a green paper on the Chinese population. It predicts that the Chinese population will peak at 1.442 billion in 2029, and start to decline thereafter, falling to 1.364 billion by 2050 and on to 1.248 billion by 2065. If China’s total fertility rate (TFR) is to stay at 1.6, the population decline will start around 2027, and the number of Chinese people will dwindle to 1.172 billion by 2065, the level of 1990.

The relaxation in China’s birth policy over recent years is beginning to show effects to some degree. In 2017, 51.2 percent of newborns, numbering 8.83 million, were the second child of their parents, increasing by 11 percent and 1.62 million respectively over 2016.

According to the estimate of the World Bank, China’s TFR stayed below 1.6 between 1996 and 2012. It edged up to 1.62 in 2016. The green paper believes that if this trend continues, China’s birth rate will stay at a safe level.