BREST IN SHOW
As the Brest Grand Départ edges closer, we assess the recent fortunes of the favourites
Do the best rivalries in sport need an element of animosity or needle to elevate it to new levels of appeal to us, as fans? Certainly, it rarely does any harm. It’s usually a total gift to sports journalists, for whom column inches flow more readily from the pen when there’s a heated squabble between the top competitors – and there’s often little hesitation to stir the pot. For a personality like Lance Armstrong, the one-time seven-time winner of the Tour de France, he almost needed grievance in a rivalry to light the fires. Disliking riders such as Marco Pantani – whether rooted in reality or fictionalised for effect – was the secret sauce that spurred him onto win so many yellow jerseys. Well, one of the secret sauces…
What will he make, then, of the positive love-in between the Tour’s big new rivalry, Primož Roglic and Tadej Pogacar? If you listen long enough to his bike racing podcast TheMove, then he might just tell you. These two Slovenian compatriots, good friends off the bike, are proof that friction between opponents isn’t a prerequisite for success. Of course, that might have something to do with their mildmannered personalities – something which the famously combative Armstrong could never be accused of – but whatever it is that’s driven these two to the apex of Grand Tour racing, whether it’s turbocharged powers of recovery, tactical savvy and massive engines, it’s got them there.
Pogacar, the defending champion, and Roglic go into the 2021 Tour de France as the heaviest of favourites with bookies and pundits alike. Their battle in 2020 went down to the wire, with nobody else in the shake-up come the penultimate stage time trial at La Planche des Belles Filles, and it was the stupendous pressure from Pogacar in that final test that saw Roglic buckle. Since that explosive, gripping day, their combined strength has only been consolidated, to the extent that stage races in which they haven’t competed are lessened by their absence. Where more brittle riders might have, after a disappointment like Roglic’s at the Tour, called time on their season, or at the very least taken time to shake off the malaise, he instead immediately won Liège-Bastogne-Liège and the season’s final grand tour, the Vuelta a Espana. This season, he would have won ParisNice were it not for final-stage crashes, and won his second Tour of the Basque Country in April after going on the attack in a race that also included Pogacar. Pogacar has been no less quiet, winning in Liège and winning Tirreno-Adriatico, a seven-day stage race, which contained heavyweights gunning for the Giro d’Italia, such as Egan Bernal and Simon Yates, with apparent ease.
After several early season skirmishes, both riders retreated through the rest of the spring and early summer to plot their own, unorthodox build-ups to the Tour. Liège, in late April, would be Roglic’s final race before the Tour two months later, opting to skip the traditional warm-up appointments at the Critérium du Dauphiné and the Tour de Suisse in favour of a more controlled environment of altitude training camps, in Tignes and Sierra Nevada. After a quiet May, Pogacar also planned to overlook the major stage races in favour of a race closer to his heart – the Tour of Slovenia, and a major career goal of his that you’d think would be ticked off sooner rather than later.
So while they’ll be some unknowns regarding the duo’s form as they line up in Brest, it’s a safe bet that these two will start as runaway favourites.
But for all this superiority, there remains a strong second tier of riders who’ll be snapping at their heels ready to pounce on any bad fortune or mistakes from the Slovenian duo. For the most part, this resistance can be found in a single team, Ineos Grenadiers, who will be bolstered by at least three grand tour winners: Geraint Thomas (2018 Tour de France), Richard
Carapaz and Tao Geoghegan Hart (the 2019 and 2020 Giro d’Italia). Thomas is set to be the leader, with team principal Dave Brailsford calling it a “great Tour on paper” for him, citing the double time trial and nature of the climbs. But with his freak crash on the finish line at the Tour of Romandie, when he slid in a two-man sprint with Michael Woods, he continues to burnish the idea that he’s always got a crash in him. Despite that fall, Thomas went on to win the overall race at Romandie, his first victory since his famous yellow jersey win in 2018, so he’ll go into the race buoyed by that, but age and history aren’t on his side: at 35, he’d be the second oldest Tour winner, behind Firmin Lambot, who was 36 when he won in 1922. He’ll have formidable team support behind him, which also includes super domestique Rohan Dennis and experienced road captain Luke Rowe (see p24), and though they’ve done it before, Dave Brailsford will have to manage the expectations of his other leaders, because to topple Pogačar and Roglič, they’ll need to ride as an unshakeable unit.
Such is the selective nature of the season’s ultimate race, it’s hard to see a winner beyond those riders already mentioned. What a story it would be, though, if Chris Froome rolled back the years and contended. He’s desperately trying to find form, but has little concrete to show for his efforts so far in 2020. He’s yet another year older, at 36, and continues to strive for form following the horror crash at the 2019 Critérium du Dauphiné that shattered his leg. Such is the sporting world’s love on an underdog, he’d be a more popular winner this year than any of his previous four wins, which he dominated and fended off suspicion of his performances at every turn. It won’t be grievance with a rival that motivates him, but grievance with social media warriors telling him to call it a day. “The more of those messages that come my way, the more it’s going to spur me on,” said a bullish Froome in May.