Croatia
A MAJOR QUESTION IS VRSALJKO’S FITNESS
Croatia go into this tournament in an unusual new role. The 2018 World Cup runners- up carry the weight of expectation like never before; after finishing third at France 98, the Vatreni failed to even qualify for Euro 2000.
In the past three years, Croatia have had to make a partial shift of generations – never an easy task for a country with so small a talent pool. The situation was hardly helped by Ivan Rakitic’s sudden international retirement last September, the midfielder following forward Mario Mandzukic and goalkeeper Danijel Subasic in saying goodbye to the national team in the aftermath of the sepia- tinged summer of 2018. Yet, still led by Luka Modric’s effortless brilliance, the perennial dark horses remain a strong outfit, albeit a little green around the edges.
Some squad members have already shown great maturity in stepping up, particularly Dinamo Zagreb keeper Dominik Livakovic, 26, and 23- year- old former Everton midfielder Nikola Vlasic. Dinamo’s Mislav Orsic is still floating on air after his stunning hat- trick knocked Tottenham out of the Europa League. And coach Zlatko Dalic can also rely upon one player the wider European public has yet to meet: striker Bruno Petkovic. Similar to Olivier Giroud in many ways, the hulking Dinamo centre- forward offers Croatia a hitherto- unavailable tactical variant in a sea of pint- sized technicians. It is very important that he’s in optimal condition when the tournament starts.
Yet more vital is that Modric, the skipper, who is still playing at the highest level after yet another fine Real Madrid season, isn’t tired of wearing the chequered shirt.
A major question mark is Sime Vrsaljko’s fitness. The Atletico Madrid full- back hasn’t completed a full season without persistent muscle injuries since 2018, and Dalic does not have an adequate replacement on the right- hand side of his defence. It remains a huge worry.
Croatia’s group is extremely demanding because it contains two hosts ( England and Scotland) and the reawakened Czech Republic, whose players increasingly recall previous generations. That being said, reaching the knockout stages should not be an issue. That this is now the minimum expectation from the Croatian public is proof of just how far this team has come. The big names may lack their forebears’ stardust, but the talent remains for them to go far.
LESSON FROM QUALIFYING
Find – and trust – a style. Dalic searched for the perfect formula for the ‘ new’ Croatia by trying too many options to fill the void left by the recent retirees. This approach may have brought top spot in a Euro 2020 qualifying group containing Hungary, Slovakia, Wales and Azerbaijan, but against Portugal, France and even Sweden in the 2020– 21 Nations League, it was evident that Croatia cannot rotate and still challenge the world’s best teams.
STRENGTHS
Croatia still possess phenomenal strength in depth in midfield. Modric and Marcelo Brozovic are an elite central pairing, capable of connecting the dots from defence to the final third. The big gain is the development of Vlasic, whose direct running with the ball at his feet helps to drive Croatia into the opposition penalty area, which is something the Vatreni have often lacked. And don’t forget Chelsea’s Mateo Kovacic, who, depending on the system, can fill more roles than a tub of coronation chicken.
WEAKNESSES
The defence conceded 16 times in six Nations League games and has been increasingly leaky at set- pieces since 2018. Dalic acknowledges this, yet a solution still eludes him. Turning promising counter- attacks into goals is another required area of improvement.
MOST LIKELY TO...
Fight for each other, papering over their deficiencies with a fanaticism typified by the 35- year- old Modric, who will run for as long as anyone 15 years his junior.
LEAST LIKELY TO...
Accept moping from the second string. Nikola Kalinic was sent home from the last World Cup for refusing to come off the bench.
WHAT THEY HOPE WILL HAPPEN
A repeat of Russia 2018, with the same homecoming party in front of hundreds of thousands of people.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN
They’re probable quarter- finalists, and then it’s the luck of the draw, just as it was at the World Cup three years ago.