China rising
THERE’S very little doubt that the economic gravity of the world is moving to the East this century — and that military gravity is following.
China will see its share of the global economy rise by almost 20 per cent and Indonesia, albeit from a much smaller base, will see its share almost double.
It’s obviously possible for countries to grow their military spending more slowly than their economy. It’s possible, but not probable. Increasingly, if it isn’t already, it’s the East Asian time zone that will be the fulcrum of the world’s economy, and the world’s strategic contest.
It’s a change in balance that has already come a long way, and it is important credit is given where it is due. The single greatest reduction in poverty in history has happened in China over the last four decades. According to the World Bank, 800 million people in China have been lifted out of poverty in a single lifetime.
How that economic growth story translates to political and strategic power will in large measure define the coming decades.
This can be a disconcerting reality to face. A unipolar world led by the US is a comfortable one for us.
But the rise of China, and Asia more broadly, is going to force us all to move out of that settled place. It needn’t be worrying, necessarily. China is not the Soviet Union. It does not seek to export an ideology; to supplant our political system and replace it with its own. While Australia may lie within a region China sees as being its domain, there is no fear that China would ever imagine forcing upon us an abandoning of our liberal democracy.
From where Australia sits the peaceful rise of China is just fine. In fact, it’s not just fine — it’s something that can underpin our national prosperity for decades to come.
But that only happens if the rise of China occurs within a global, rules-based order, with China as a contributor to that order.
China’s actions in the South China Sea are a cause for anxiety. The attempt to grow sovereignty over the South China Sea by changing the facts on the ground suggests a reliance on the power of occupation rather than the rule of law.
The rise of China is obviously not happening in a void.
In 2017, 54,000 US defence force personnel across 21 major bases are in Japan and a further 28,500 personnel across 12 bases are in South Korea. And these soldiers, sailors and aviators are backed up by a formidable array of military hardware. The Seventh Fleet is based in Japan. Additionally 12 US Joint Strike Fighters are destined to be based at Kadena Air Base, also in Japan.
This presence has underwritten the rules-based order that has provided the stability that has enabled the phenomenal economic growth of East Asia.
I am sure that the US will continue to play its global role.
In the midst of these strategic contests Australia has critical choices to make that will affect its future through this century.
As we examine what has been at the heart of the US Alliance since 1941 the core rationale for the relationship remains clear.
Australia and the US share critical values. We are both democracies. We also adhere to the rule of law at home and seek to create a rule of law between nations. This predictable rule of law has underpinned East Asian prosperity and our prosperity with it.
The Alliance is as relevant and important today as it has ever been.
And so it is from the position of a steadfast Alliance with the US that Australia can and should grow its relationship with China. Richard Marles is shadow defence minister and the federal Labor MP for Corio