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TURNBULL FRAGILE AS DUTTON GOES TO BACKBENCH
PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull is unlikely to still be Australia’s leader at the next election, let alone next month, experts and rivals predict.
The PM survived a party room vote 48-35 yesterday morning, enduring a leadership challenge from Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, who resigned from his portfolio soon after.
But with his challenger now casting an ominous shadow from the backbench, and 35 of his colleagues having voted against his leadership of the party, Mr Turnbull’s troubles are far from over.
Deakin University politics expert Geoffrey Robinson said a second leadership challenge — again from Mr Dutton — was probably imminent.
“I don’t think Malcolm Turnbull’s position is viable, I think it shows how the conservative side of Australian politics is fragmented, very notably at the moment, and I think that’s posing real difficulty to somebody in the centre, like Malcolm Turnbull,” Dr Robinson said.
“I think the way in which a lot of conservative politics is becoming more and more kind of identity politics almost, you know, ‘ who’s the true conservative?’, that kind of American-style politics, Turnbull just can’t play very well.
“He can’t keep together the competing factions of the party any more . . . I just can’t see this lasting very long at all.”
Closer to home, Dr Robinson said Corangamite federal Liberal MP Sarah Henderson’s chances of holding her marginal seat would be much lower under Mr Dutton as Prime Minister.
“I think it’s a challenge for Sarah Henderson, who’s very much on team Turnbull, you’d think, given her personal background and general ideological views,” he said.
“I think a Dutton prime ministership would make that more difficult in terms of being less attractive to Victorian vot- ers and moderate voters more generally.
“I just somehow can’t see Peter Dutton inspiring voters in Grovedale.”
But Dr Robinson said Ms Henderson could benefit from the leadership challenge with a potential — but unlikely — clean-out of cabinet, which could bring her from the backbench to cabinet.
Ms Henderson did not directly say who she voted for in yesterday’s party room meeting, or who she would vote for in a possible future spill, when asked by the Geelong Advertiser yesterday.
“I have made clear my strong support for the Prime Minister,” Ms Henderson said.
“Over the past week, I have spoken out strongly on the need for tougher regulations to drive down power prices and am very pleased with the Government’s response.
“The biggest risk to the national economy is Bill Shorten and Labor, which is why I am confident our party room will quickly unite in the interests of the Australian people.”
A successful leadership challenge before the next election would be the fourth midterm leadership change in recent years, after the RuddGillard-Rudd knifings in 2010 and 2013, and Mr Turnbull’s own success in September 2015 when he replaced then-prime minister Tony Abbott.
Dr Robinson said the sudden explosion of leadership spills in Australia was in stark contrast to the years before Mr Rudd’s 2007 election, and had probably happened for a number of reasons.
“I think some of it is economically driven,” he said. “The sort of slow degrade of living standards for the last 10 years or so is part of the story there, but I also think increasing short termism and the focus on public opinion polls are the driver of everything.”
Corio federal Labor MP Richard Marles agreed that the Prime Minister was unlikely to hold the country’s top job for much longer.
“(Corangamite federal Liberal MP) Sarah Henderson’s party is a colossal shambles,” Mr Marles said. “It is hard to imagine a worse result for the country than this morning’s outcome.
“Malcolm Turnbull is now the definition of a dead man walking.”
“I just somehow can’t see Peter Dutton inspiring voters in Grovedale.” POLITICS EXPERT DR GEOFFREY ROBINSON