Odds favour Cheeseman for upset

Statewide swing to Labor predicted

SOUTH Barwon is shaping as the seat to watch in Geelong at today’s election, as Labor attempts to wrest back the electorate it lost eight years ago.

With fresh polls indicating a statewide swing towards Labor, there is growing uncertainty over whether Liberal MP Andrew Katos can survive with his slim 2.9 per cent margin.

Deakin University political expert Geoff Robinson said population changes in South Barwon were not helping Mr Katos and the incumbent was at risk of being voted out.

“I think he is in a reasonable amount of danger,” Dr Robinson said. “I know he’s the sitting MP and that’s an advantage, but obviously Labor is giving a lot of attention to the seat, while the population trends favour them.

“If there’s a slight overall statewide swing to Labor, it will be bigger in outer suburban and fairly volatile seats as well, so I think he’s in fair danger of losing the seat.”

Labor candidate Darren Cheeseman has emerged as a clear favourite with major bookmakers.

His odds with Sportsbet shortened to $1.78 yesterday, while Ladbrokes was still offering $1.80. Sportsbet was paying $2 for a Katos win and Ladbrokes $1.90.

Despite the momentum behind the Labor challenger, it is understood the Liberal Party has internal polling figures that indicate it will retain the seat.

Mr Katos has been the South Barwon MP since 2010, but copped a 2 per cent swing against him at the last election.

The electorate has traditionally been a Liberal stronghold since its inception in 1976, but was held by Labor’s Michael Crutchfield between 2002 and 2010.

Mr Katos could not be reached for comment yesterday, but has remained upbeat throughout the campaign.

“For four years, Labor has ignored the electorate,” he said earlier this week. “We’ve put together a comprehensive list of commitments for the seat and I think people will see that.”

Mr Cheeseman’s campaign hit a minor hitch on Thursday with the sudden absence of his field officer. Mystery surrounds the absence, but a Labor spokesman said the officer was on sick leave and would return to work today.

Plenty of attention will also centre on the seat of Geelong.

Independent candidate Darryn Lyons and the Liberals’ Freya Fidge are vying to unseat Labor’s Christine Couzens, who sits on a 6 per cent margin.

A recent poll found Mr Lyons had secured 15 per cent of the primary vote, but Dr Robinson said he did not believe the ex-mayor could topple Ms Couzens.

“He wasn’t really taking any votes from Labor or the Greens, and was well behind the Liberals,” he said.

Dr Robinson is also predicting Labor’s Lisa Neville will retain the seat of Bellarine, and that John Eren could boost his 17 per cent margin in Lara.