SEAT OF CORANGAMITE
HELD BY: Sarah Henderson (Lib) CONFIRMED CONTENDERS: Sarah Henderson (Lib); Libby Coker (ALP); Simon Northeast (Greens); Neil Harvey (United Australia Party); Damien Cole (independent); Damien Pitts (Animal Justice Party). 2016 MARGIN: 3.13 per cent. WHAT HAPPENED LAST TIME: Sarah Henderson won a second term thanks to a strong first preference vote (46.42 per cent). But first-time Labor candidate Libby Coker managed to shave about 0.8 per cent off the two-party preferred margin. A total of 10 candidates ran, with The Greens’ Patchouli Paterson (11.45 per cent of the primary vote) and Patrice Nelson (3.09), Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, completing an all-female top-four. BOUNDARY CHANGES: With 5000 more people living in Armstrong Creek now than there was three years ago and Torquay getting larger, population growth has forced alterations to Corangamite’s boundaries. Ms Henderson won her fight against plans to change the name of the electorate to Cox, but was unsuccessful in keeping the Liberal stronghold Colac in the seat. It’s now part of Wannon, and Highton and most of Belmont fall into Corio, as do towns in the north of the Bellarine Peninsula, including Drysdale, Clifton Springs, Portarlington and St Leonards. WHAT IT MEANS: The voters of Corangamite are used to walking the electoral tightrope, and, thanks to the boundary changes, that’s exactly where they again find themselves. Based on predicted national swings and the new boundaries, respected number crunches have declared the seat “notionally“Labor territory. But the forecast margin is wafer-thin (about 300 votes or 0.03 per cent). The predictions can’t tell us how the thousands of new residents living at Armstrong Creek will vote or how people’s views have changed. WHAT MATTERS: With its boundaries squeezing further away from both Geelong and Colac, Corangamite has no central population base. Rather, it brings together Geelong’s urban fringe with rural and coastal towns adjoined by hinterland. The geographic diversity brings a wide range of interests and needs, but population growth and environmental issues traditionally rate highly across the electorate. Connectivity through roads, rail, internet and phone services are also top of mind with voters. KEY BOOTHS: The Torquay polling stations were evenly split in 2016, as were Teesdale, Meredith, Lavers Hill and Connewarre. There were no booths in Armstrong Creek. WHY IT’S IMPORTANT: After the government lost the NSW seat of Eden Monaro at the last election, Corangamite has claims as the nation’s bellwether seat. In eight elections since 1996 the party that has won Corangamite has formed the government. Labor’s Darren Cheeseman rode by the seat of his pants to extract the electorate from the conservatives for the first time since the Great Recession in 2007, and held on again in 2010, but never had a margin of more than 0.85 per cent. Sarah Henderson has won twice with margins between 3 and 4 per cent. After five years on the backbench, she was elevated to an assistant minister role following Scott Morrison’s win in last year’s leadership tussle. The Liberal ranks of established female MPs is thin, especially in Victoria. The money thrown at the electorate in recent months suggests the Coalition is keen to keep her in parliament. The number of pledges and ministers it sends to Corangamite during the campaign will indicate how optimistic it is about that happening.