Thousands of daily cases and many deaths loom, modelling shows

VICTORIA faces a peak of more than 4500 daily cases of Covid-19 by Christmas and 2200 deaths in the New Year, following the easing of restrictions over the next seven weeks.

Epidemiologists behind the modelling that has guided the road map out of lockdown say if Victorians “make an extra effort” to follow the rules over the next two months, the impact on the healthcare system could be significantly less.

Premier Daniel Andrews announced on Sunday details of a staggered return of freedoms starting next weekend when 80 per cent of Victorians have received their first vaccination dose. More substantial restrictions are due to be lifted on November 5 when 80 per cent of eligible Victorians are fully vaccinated.

The road map, based on modelling by Melbourne’s Burnet Institute, shows the peak seven-day average is expected to be reached on December 15. By the end of the year, 3150 people will be in hospital, with more than a quarter of those in intensive care.

“These are sobering numbers,” Mr Andrews said.

Burnet professor Margaret Hellard, one of the authors of the modelling, said Victorians could “individually make a difference” to these projected outcomes, based on the choices they made.

The modelling shows that if the road map is accompanied by increased testing of vaccinated people with mild symptoms, the peak number of cases could be almost halved and about 1000 fewer people would die.

“There is fatigue, but we shouldn’t be pessimistic. We should instead be going ‘It’s the final quarter, and we’ve really got to run hard for the ball’,” Professor Hellard said.

“If Victorians wear their masks, meet outdoors and don’t go to each other’s houses, if we get vaccinated, if we get tested when we need to, if we try our best to do all the things we’re being asked to do, we can change that.

“If the health system gets overwhelmed, people die. We don’t get to rewrite the story then, but we have the chance to rewrite it now.”

AMA Victoria president Roderick McRae said while the easing of restrictions was “premature”, it was reassuring that the impact on hospitals would be carefully monitored.

Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation (Victorian Branch) secretary Lisa Fitzpatrick said the plan was sensibly “cautious”.