Poll tips Labor to pick up nine seats

LABOR is in the box seat for a convincing election victory, with a major nationwide poll predicting the opposition will claim nine seats off the government.

And while Scott Morrison is fighting a rearguard action to win back outer suburban Labor electorates, including in Melbourne and Sydney, the YouGov research suggests the Coalition will fail to take any seats from the opposition.

The polling, commissioned by News Corp, finds the most likely outcome on May 21 is Anthony Albanese winning 80 seats – more than the 76 required for an outright victory – with the Prime Minister stuck on 63 seats.

The lower margin of error still gives the Labor leader the 76 seats he needs, while the upper margin of error hands him 85. The best-case scenario for the Coalition leaves it well short on 68 seats.

YouGov forecasts Victoria will be central to the government’s downfall, with the Coalition losing four seats: Chisholm and Higgins to Labor, as well as Kooyong and Goldstein to teal independents.

Labor is also expected to pick up Bass in Tasmania, Boothby in South Australia, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, and Reid and Robertson in NSW.

Of six seats deemed too close to call, with the two-party preferred vote locked at 50-50, five more are held by the Coalition.

These are Bennelong and Lindsay in NSW, Longman and Ryan in Queensland, and Sturt in South Australia. The Labor-held Victorian seat of Corangamite is also all tied up.

The numbers are based on a YouGov survey of 18,923 voters nationwide between April 14 and May 7, before the final fortnight of the campaign.