Greatest challenge of our generation

THE Stockdale Paradox is a concept popularised by Jim Collins in his book, Good to Great.

Admiral James Stockdale was the most senior member of the US military taken prisoner during the Vietnam War.

Collins asked Stockdale why some people had lived through the horrific prisoner of war conditions and others had died.

The answer – the ones who were idealistically optimistic died; their spirits crushed. Others who were extreme pessimists also died. The ones who survived, said Stockdale, were the ones who had “the faith that they would prevail in the end and at the same time confronted the most brutal facts of their current reality”.

I have reflected on this recently in the context of meeting our global net-zero emissions targets and providing the energy that the world requires to keep the lights on. What will it really take to bring about the massive energy transformation required?

Innovating, designing, commercialising, building and operating low-, zero- and negative-emissions technologies will be how we will make the required reductions while sustaining prosperity for all.

That was a key message recently from Geelong’s Technology and Innovation Summit, presented by the Geelong Manufacturing Council, which included some of Australia’s leading minds on the subject.

But reaching our global, national and Victorian emissions targets will require a whole-ofcommunity strategy. It will require new ways of thinking and working, and the kind of collaboration throughout society that has seldom been seen outside world wars. We will need to be ambitious and aspirational, and drive hard to change our energy mix.

Geelong is ideally positioned to be a leader in the manufacture of clean technologies.

We are an industrial port city with rich manufacturing expertise and deep collaboration experience between industry, government, and the research sector.

But we also need to be realistic. The world today consumes 100 million barrels of oil daily or about 31 per cent of the primary energy mix. Together with coal and natural gas, more than 80 per cent of the world’s energy is derived from fossil fuels. Solar, wind and biofuels, while growing fast, are only providing about 8 per cent of the world’s primary energy, with nuclear and hydropower making up a further 10 per cent.

These numbers are changing, but the energy transformation will require a monumental effort by every sector.

Paul Ebert, director of energy transition at Worley, the Australian-owned global engineering company founded by visionary John Grill, told the Summit: “If we develop energy infrastructure the way we always have, we won’t get to net zero by 2050. We might not even get halfway.”

Ebert has co-developed a study with Princeton University in the US that modelled what would be required for a single city, roughly the size of Geelong, to move from fossil fuels to renewables.

To reach the targets, we must be willing to surround our city entirely with wind farms and solar panels. For the US to make the transition, it will need to build two 400-megawatt solar power stations every week for the next 30 years.

The massive scale of transformation required will see significant impacts on communities and natural environments. New social agreements will need to be negotiated and all-new technology options will need to be developed, including nuclear, hydrogen and carbon capture and sequestration.

This is a new frontier – the largest technology transformation we will see in our lifetime.

This is also a huge opportunity; something that was also made clear at the Geelong Technology and Innovation Summit.

We need to vastly expand our energy storage capacity, as well as our energy infrastructure, ideally pairing renewable energy with storage. We heard from hi-tech battery – and Geelong-based – success story Li-S Energy.

This is a company developing smart battery solutions for international customers.

However, facing the brutal reality will also require continued investment in traditional fossil fuel energy sources while the transformation takes shape.

Viva Energy’s natural gas import terminal is part of this transition. Gas is held to be a transition fuel because it is a lower carbon alternative.

The reality is, for the world to achieve its transformation aspiration and for Geelong to keep powering our factories, to keep our homes warm, to keep the lights on and to cook our food, we will need more gas in the medium term.

Realistically understanding what is required and marshalling all our resources are the keys to a more resilient Geelong region – and a stronger more diversified Australian economy.

BUT REACHING OUR GLOBAL, NATIONAL AND VICTORIAN EMISSIONS TARGETS WILL REQUIRE A WHOLE-OF-COMMUNITY STRATEGY. IT WILL REQUIRE NEW WAYS OF THINKING AND WORKING, AND THE KIND OF COLLABORATION THROUGHOUT SOCIETY THAT HAS SELDOM BEEN SEEN OUTSIDE WORLD WARS.