Can­cer death rate pro­jected to de­crease over next decade

Mansfield Courier - - OPINIONS/PEOPLE -

MANS­FIELD res­i­dents should be pleased with a re­port is­sued re­cently by the Aus­tralian In­sti­tute of Health and Wel­fare (AIHW).

The re­port shows that the cur­rent down­ward trend in can­cer death rates looks set to con­tinue.

Can­cer death rates have gen­er­ally de­creased over time, with the death rate from all can­cers com­bined de­creas­ing from 199 deaths per 100,000 peo­ple in 1968 to 167 per 100,000 in 2012.

The web-based re­lease, ‘Can­cer mor­tal­ity trends and pro­jec­tions: 2013 to 2025’, shows that be­tween 2013 and 2025, the death rate from all can­cers is pre­dicted to con­tinue this over­all down­ward trend from an es­ti­mated 214 to 183 deaths per 100,000 males, and from 135 to 120 deaths per 100,000 fe­males.

“While the death rate for can­cer is pre­dicted to de­cline, the es­ti­mated num­ber of deaths from can­cer is pre­dicted to in­crease,” said AIHW spokesper­son Justin Har­vey.

Be­tween 2013 and 2025, the num­ber of deaths from can­cer is pre­dicted to in­crease from an es­ti­mated 25,580 to 32,010 deaths among males, and from 19,450 to 24,250 deaths among fe­males.

The pro­jected in­crease in the num­ber of deaths is mainly due to the age­ing and in­creas­ing size of the pop­u­la­tion.

“By look­ing at his­tor­i­cal trends, we have been able to es­ti­mate can­cer mor­tal­ity in the fu­ture Aus­tralian pop­u­la­tion which is im­por­tant to help plan fu­ture ser­vices,” Mr Har­vey said.

How­ever, many other fac­tors may af­fect can­cer-re­lated deaths in the fu­ture, some of which can­not yet be taken into ac­count when pre­par­ing these es­ti­mates.

“For ex­am­ple, changes in di­ag­nos­tic prac­tices may lead to un­ex­pected shifts in in­ci­dence and sur­vival rates,” he added.

“Dif­fer­ent man­age­ment and treat­ment op­tions, as well as changes in un­der­ly­ing risk fac­tors in the pop­u­la­tion, also have the po­ten­tial to al­ter the fu­ture death rates from those we have pro­jected here.

“It is there­fore im­por­tant to note that pro­jec­tions are not ex­act fore­casts, but give an in­di­ca­tion of what might be ex­pected, and are de­pen­dent on cur­rent as­sump­tions re­main­ing valid into the fu­ture.”

The re­lease is avail­able at www.aihw.gov.au/can­cer/ mor­tal­ity-trends-pro­jec­tions.

The in­sti­tute has to­day also up­dated its gen­eral can­cer web pages (avail­able at www.aihw. gov.au/can­cer/all-can­cers).

These web pages present key data, in­for­ma­tion and trends over time for 12 key can­cers and all can­cers com­bined.

The AIHW is a ma­jor na­tional agency set up by the Aus­tralian Gov­ern­ment to pro­vide re­li­able, reg­u­lar and rel­e­vant in­for­ma­tion and sta­tis­tics on Aus­tralia’s health and wel­fare.

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