Experts not sold on early election

POLITICAL BUNFIGHT

TWO major legislative defeats and ministers talking of renewed mandates have reignited speculation the State Government is considering an early election.

The State Government’s bid for mandatory minimum prison terms for child sex crimes and a plan to open more forests for logging were felled by the Legislative Council this week.

Acting Attorney-General Matthew Groom and Resources Minister Guy Barnett said the Government would not back away from either policy, vowing to take them back to the people at the next election.

The Liberals blamed Labor for the defeats, although the votes of independent MLCs were also needed to reject the Bills.

The Liberals were ready to go with social media posts saying “Labor has failed our kids — share your outrage”.

However, Tasmanian political experts said the past week did not necessarily spell an early election — just the beginning of a long and ugly campaign. A state election is due in March, but because Tasmania does not have fixed terms it could come at any time.

University of Tasmania political scientist Richard Eccleston said voters in Australia and around the world were sceptical of governments calling early elections for political purposes.

“There would be significant risks associated with going early,” Professor said.

He said it seemed the Liberals’ behaviour over the past week was less about bringing on an election early and more about drawing battle lines.

“My view is it’s really just about setting the agenda for the election campaign. There’s lots of wedge politics going on.

“The Government is trying to identify some core issues that appeal to its base and that can be used as (a basis) for reelection, and also issues that are difficult for the Labor Party,” he said.

“I think it’s probably going to be an election in the new year.”

Election analyst Kevin Bonham said he could not see a clear motivation for going early at this stage.

“If they do intend to serve their full term then they might (do well) to be making some definitive statement about that sooner rather than later to stop all the noises,” he said.

“They probably need to show that they’re connecting with issues that the people care about, rather than just constantly fighting the culture wars of the last election.” after they have been drinking,” he said on Wednesday.

“For somebody who has an alcohol problem and cannot control it, it is very similar to a lot of people who commit sexual crimes against children

“While some who do it know it is wrong and it might be a one-off instance, there [are] people who have a sickness and are repeat offenders, after locking them up and letting them out, the crimes are often repeated.”

Yesterday he said: “I unequivocally and unreservedly apologise to victims of child sexual abuse and their advocates. My comparison of drinkdriving and child sex abuse was simplistic, inappropriate and insensitive. As a father and a grandfather I condemn child abuse in the strongest possible terms.”

Police Minister Rene Hidding said the “sick comparison” showed “Labor just don’t get it when it comes to serious sexual offences against children”.