Poll has Shorten in line for top job

BILL Shorten looks set to become prime minister in a clear victory at the next federal election, with a Newspoll analysis showing voters prefer Labor over the Coalition in every state.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull would face a loss of more than 20 seats across the country if an election was held now, according to an analysis of Newspoll results for the past two quarters published in The Australian yesterday.

Labor is leading the Coalition by 53 per cent to 47 per cent on a two-party preferred basis nationwide. Labor is ahead in every state but the gap is the widest in South Australia and Victoria, at 54 per cent to 46 per cent.

But in a sign the Opposition leader’s tough talk on the Adani coalmine project will hurt the party, Labor’s popularity in Queensland has taken a significant hit in the past two months. Labor has dropped four points in Queensland from a 55 per cent average for October to December to a 51 per cent average for February to March.

The Newspoll analysis also shows Mr Turnbull’s personal ratings have continued to slide since October.

He remains more popular than Mr Shorten but his average six-point lead over the Labor leader as preferred prime minister for the first three months of this year is the tightest since the last election.

Mr Turnbull faces losing his 30th Newspoll this month, the number he cited as justification while rolling Tony Abbott as Liberal leader in 2015.