Confident Tassie businesses buck national trend

TASMANIA is bucking the trend when it comes to business confidence with a lift in expectations against a backdrop of plummeting confidence on a national level.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the uncertainties surrounding the political environment as we face a federal election in the next few months, as well as the continuing decline in house prices in Australia’s two largest cities, appear to have significantly dented confidence.

“Analysing business confidence on a state-by-state level shows it is Australia’s largest state, NSW, powering the downward trend in the index. Business confidence in NSW hit a record low below 100 in January which is not that surprising when one considers that Sydney house prices have now fallen by more than 10 per cent since peaking in 2017 and the state has considerable political uncertainty with an elec- tion due next month and a federal election in three months.

“There were also monthly declines in Victoria and SA, but increases in Tasmania and the resource rich states of Queensland and WA.

These results are also not that surprising when one con- siders Australia had the second biggest trade surplus on record in December 2018 of $3.7 billion seasonally adjusted according to the ABS built on exports of commodities led by iron ore, coal and natural gas which are heavily concentrated in Queensland and WA.

“Looking at business confi- dence by size of business shows that it is the micro businesses with fewer than five employees that are the most concerned by business conditions early in 2019.

The rolling three-month Business Confidence for Micro businesses has fallen to 108, down 7.5 points on a year ago.