The favourites and the smokies

FAVOURITES

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong): The 2016 winner has enjoyed another sterling season and will finish in the top three. If he’s close late, he’s a great chance as he will poll well over the last three rounds. But he might bleed too many earlier votes to teammate Tim Kelly. Lachie Neale (Brisbane): The move from Fremantle has been very good for him. He ticks all the Brownlow boxes — his side made the finals, he’s a midfielder and no teammates should take an awful lot of votes from him. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs): Certain to poll well after his All-Australian season. But teammates Jack Macrae and Josh Dunkley also shone in the midfield. There will be controversy if Bontempelli wins, given the Round-22 fine for hitting Nick Haynes.

Nat Fyfe (Fremantle): Like Dangerfield, a former winner (2015) and a perennial favourite. Fyfe is hamstrung to an extent because the Dockers did not make the finals, meaning less chances for three-vote games. But Fyfe enjoyed an outstanding year and he will be prominent on the leaderboard.

Patrick Cripps (Carlton): The Blues midfield bull has the same profile in this count as Fyfe — no top-eight finish, but what a stellar season from him. The feeling is Cripps will need a solid lead at halfway, with not so many eye-catching games later in the season.

SMOKIES

Brodie Grundy (Collingwood): Can the Magpies ruckman snatch away the midfielders’ medal? A stellar season, rewarded with his secondstraight All-Australian honours. Tim Kelly (Geelong): Remember when Gary Ablett was favourite to win his first Brownlow in 2007, only for Cats teammate Jimmy Bartel to come from the clouds? Adam Treloar (Collingwood): A solid season and if Grundy isn’t the Collingwood frontrunner, it will be Treloar.