Dragged down by vain efforts to hold back tide of change
It’s so obvious — people want to live here, so we need more housing, says Brian Wightman
THERE have been a flurry of economic indicators, reports, scorecards and statistics that all point to Hobart and the broader Tasmanian economy being in relatively good health.
CommSec’s State of the States rankings showed Tasmania second only to Victoria in economic performance.
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show our retail sector going from strength to strength, our exports to China, Korea, Indonesia and the US growing by double digits over the past 12 months and, in terms of state final demand, our economy is the fastest growing in the country. Sensis Business Index shows Tasmania’s small and medium-sized businesses are the most confident.
One of the main drivers is a booming population. The last time Tasmania’s population grew this quickly was 30 years ago, in 1989. I was in Grade 8; Bob Hawke was prime minister; David Boon was batting at first drop for Australia; and AC/DC’s
Thunderstruck was at number one on the (record) charts.
In the 12 months to March, Tasmania’s population grew by more than 6000 people. Hobart accounted for about half of that growth, adding more than 3000 people.
It is driving our business sector and underpinning jobs around the state. But, unlike the mainland, we’re not used to change like this, given it only seems to happen once every 30 years. We got used to waving our kids off at the airport as they left for a new life in Melbourne. Now they’re moving back and bringing more people with them. We got used to being able to drive from one end of our commute to the other without stopping. We got used to a quiet time over summer, while now the state is buzzing with festivals. We got used to having some of the best beaches and natural areas in the world to ourselves, and now we are sharing our special places with visitors. And until recently we’ve been used to relatively plentiful and reasonably cheap housing.
Going back to the way we were or putting our heads in the sand and hoping these changes will go away simply aren’t options.
Hobart’s population is growing by about 60 people a week, but in 2018-2019, fewer than 200 new dwellings were approved by Hobart City Council.
As sure as night follows day, if you’ve got a booming population and next to no growth in homes the outcome is going to be a housing shortage. What’s even more obvious is the solution. Approve and build more housing. Not everyone wants a big quarter-acre block in the suburbs now. More people want to live in metropolitan areas. By increasing inner-city living, you reduce car movements, which reduces congestion, reduces environmentally damaging urban sprawl, and creates an instant market for inner-city businesses. You free up housing in outer suburbs for first homeowners, families and those whose preference is not city living. It is a no-brainer that increasing supply will help with affordability.
People are moving to Hobart and doing nothing to reflect this is contributing to
the housing crisis. We need to make sure medium-density urban infill can provide homes for people from all walks of life, with social, affordable and premium options.
Rather than having this conversation, we’re stuck with the base politics of a minority who can’t accept Tasmania is changing. They think that, like some sort of urban planning version of King Canute, if they can only limit building heights, they will hold back the tide of change and take Hobart back to the splendid but economically challenged isolation of years past.
This mindset is doing so much damage. To test that, the Property Council engaged
SGS Economics and Planning to model the effects of building height limits on development.
SGS modelled the potential return on investment for hypothetical developments in three locations – the K&D site, 28-30 Davey St and 28 Elizabeth St. Each was assessed for feasibility for commercial, hotel or residential development. In every scenario, reducing heights would basically stop all three types of development stone cold dead. These findings could be applied across the city. Severely restricting heights will also hold back much-needed investment and development to support Hobart’s growth.
We need to achieve greater density in Hobart to meet the housing needs of the local population which have been under huge stress as demand has outstripped supply.
Of course, we need a sensible approach that makes development commercially viable while protecting and enhancing the unique urban landscape. The best way is to focus on design and aesthetics rather than just the height, and to consider the economics of development, especially while we have the attention of high-quality investors.
The bottom line is that it’s highly likely capping heights will intensify the housing crisis. There’s a very big difference between proper planning and not planning for anything at all, and that’s the problem facing Hobart City Council. Are they up to the challenge of making Hobart a better place? Or are they hoping that if they ignore the change around them it will eventually go away?