All this, and still nothing changes
Let’s be clear, this disaster could be seen a mile away, writes Peter Boyer
“LET’S be clear about this,” said science minister Karen Andrews last week about the Morrison government’s carbon emissions record.
When she had earlier called for a stop to “debates about climate change”, Andrews lifted hopes that Coalition opponents of an emissions policy might at long last be told to stay silent. No such luck. At the end of Australia’s and the world’s hottest decade, culminating in our hottest and driest year and worst fire season, the Coalition remains in lockdown over what to do about climate change. That is, it will continue to do nothing to reduce emissions.
If Andrews had really wanted to be clear, she’d have pointed out Australia reached its 2020 emissions target only because it drew on credits from its ridiculously high Kyoto allocation and it will only reach its 2030 target by using more credits in defiance of the Paris Agreement.
This is basis of the claim by Scott Morrison and his ministers, repeated by Andrews, of “meeting and beating” targets when emissions were actually rising.
The global emissions record is bleaker than ever. US data show the annual growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide rising from less than one part per million in the 1950s to 2.5 parts. Most happened this century, especially since 2010.
Australia has had a key role in that failure. In Kyoto in 1997 we insisted on a clause allowing land carbon credits, dubbed “the Australia clause”. Little did anyone know how pernicious this escape clause would become or how its blatant misuse would sully our reputation. Australia has shown how you can get away with increasing emissions while claiming you’re not.
As treasurer, Scott Morrison de-funded the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. That was after a similar initiative in CSIRO lost its funding. Both worked on practical outcomes. The PM now has the gall to say he is behind measures to help adapt to “a new normal”. But he hasn’t been paying attention.
A changing climate makes each year abnormal and the abnormality is rising as each year passes. It’s not as if we’ve had no warning. Research said that of all developed countries Australia was most vulnerable to warming, and climate change created conditions for more intense drought and fire.
This was summarised in economics professor Ross Garnaut’s 600-page review of 2008. No-one familiar with it could have been surprised at the fires, nor the fire, drought and flood disasters of the decade before. He found climate change would increase risk of drought and flooding and affect seasonal and daily patterns of rain, stream flows and water availability.
A 2007 study cited by Garnaut said global warming would cause fire seasons to lengthen and become more intense. The paper said that this effect “should be directly observable by 2020”. Indeed.
In an era of government obsession with boat arrivals, Garnaut warned impact on developing countries in our region, with rising sea levels and more erratic weather, posed an unprecedented national security threat. He also foresaw global pressure to lower emissions would cause a flight of capital from coal. Last week the PM, whose antics with a lump of coal are now world famous, doubled down in defence of coal exports after Black Rock, the world’s largest fund manager, said it was divesting from thermal coal.
Notwithstanding advice, the government has been blindsided by the drought and fire. Along with de-funding research, manipulating emissions accounting, abolishing carbon pricing and rejecting a post-2020 renewable target, it adds up to monumental governmental failure. Scott Morrison has seen the evidence Australia should be leading the world into a post-carbon age. Yet he remains aboard the fossil fuel train, charging full steam into a tunnel. And there’s no light at the other end.