Gutwein-led Libs maintain lead

IN THE first round of polling since Peter Gutwein replaced Will Hodgman as Premier of Tasmania, the Liberal Government has maintained a lead over the Labor Opposition.

EMRS conducted a telephone poll of 1000 Tasmanian voters between March 3-10 and found that the 43 per cent of voters who expressed a preference favoured the Liberals, down from 44 per cent in December last year.

The polling also showed that health remained the most important issue for Tasmanians.

TASMANIA’S Liberal government has retained a handy lead in the latest opinion polling – with a nine percentage point buffer on Labor despite a recent leadership change.

EMRS polling was conducted after the resignation of Will Hodgman and the elevation of Peter Gutwein as Premier.

The telephone poll of 1000 Tasmanian voters conducted between March 3 and 10 found that the 43 per cent of voters who expressed a preference favoured the Liberals, down from 44 per cent in December last year.

Labor’s popularity rose from 31 per cent to 34 per cent over the same period – and is up five percentage points from November last year.

EMRS managing director Samuel Paske said there was something in the result for both major parties.

“The support for the Government has remained steady since the last poll in December, as voters watch to see how Premier Gutwein will differ from his predecessor both in a policy and leadership sense,” he said.

“With the support for Labor at 34 per cent currently, they will be encouraged by consecutive bumps to their support since a November 2019 result of 29 per cent. Voters will be looking to both leaders in the coming weeks to see how they respond to COVID-19 and the associated uncertainty, and we expect the next poll in May 2019 to reflect whatever action and leadership is exhibited in the ensuing period.”

Support for the Greens was down one percentage point from 13 per cent to 12 per cent and support for other parties down 1 per cent from 12 to 11 per cent.

The result is the second poll since the 2018 state election that the combined result for the opposition parties exceeded that of the Government.

The Liberals are down seven points from their result at the March 2018 election. Labor has lifted by one percentage point from that time.

Rebecca White retains a lead in the preferred premier stakes: at 41 per cent compared to 39 per cent for Mr Gutwein.

Both results lie within the poll’s margin of error and the voting intention figures show that despite Ms White’s popularity, many voters who prefer her as premier intend to vote Liberal. Ms White had a onepoint margin over Mr Hodgman in December last year at 43 per cent to 42 per cent. Twenty per cent of respondents prefer neither or are unsure.