Massive energy plan will only work if all Tasmanians benefit
Electric transport and hydrogen jobs beckon, write Richard Eccleston and BenParr
WE live in uncertain times, but one thing becoming clearer amid the C OVID -19 pandemic is that the global transition to alow-carbon economy to address climate change is gathering pace.
Investors are moving away from fossil fuel sand backing clean technology while governments, now including China and the US( if Bid en wins ), are belatedly taking more aggressive action.
Tasmania has a real opportunity to capitalise on this transition, given our renewable energy assets and low emissions profile. The Tasmanian government’ s renewable energy target, which aims to double generation in Tasmania by 2040, is a clear statement of intent in our renewable energy ambitions. While most of the discussion has focused on investment and jobs during construction phase, the real dividend is the potential to make significant contribution to the national emissions reduction effort. We estimate doubling renewable energy generation in Tasmania over 20 years could reduce national emissions from electricity generation by 7 percent.
But targets are easier set than met and now the real work begins in developing plans and policies to promote the investment required to double energy generation.
Two questions should be front and centre incoming months: What projects will be required to achieve the target; and how can we use additional renewable energy generation forlong-termbenefitsfor Tasmanians?
Achieving the target will largely depend on Marin us Link. The expectation is that it would unlock a new wave of investment in renewable energy generation. But support for Project Marin us shouldn’ t be unqualified and it’ s important to acknowledge the risks associated with large energy projects inaner a of rapid technological change.
There are legitimate concerns that by the 2030s battery storage will have evolved such that mainland demand for Tasmanian hydro electricity and therefore Marin us Link may decline.
However, the accepted independent modelling( by the Australian Energy Market Operator) suggests we will need Marin us, Snowy Hydro and massive investment in battery storage to deliver the reliable energy to provide backup for increased wind and solar generation as Australia transitions to a zero-emissions electricity system. Even if demand for hydro electricity dec lines as batteries become more efficient, as long as Marin us Link is established as a regulated element of the national grid, the cost and financial risk will be shared by consumers across the national market. Once a regulated return on investment is established, there should be long-term investors to fund the project. Taken together, we believe the financial risks for Tasmania can be managed.
The biggest challenge facing the government and community will be to ensure the next generation of