Bush fire risk is high despite wet forecast

GET set for a long, wet summer.

Almost the entire continent can expect greater than average rainfall over the next three months, the Bureau of Meteorology has warned in its latest climate outlook.

An active La Niña event in the Pacific, expected to peak in December or January, is to blame for the likely wet summer, with the Bureau warning of an increased risk of flooding in some parts of eastern Australia.

The chance of above average rainfall is 70 percent for most areas of the country and 80 per cent for the Queensland coast, the climate outlook stated.

The outlook was “the opposite of what we expected last year,” said the Bureau’s Head of Operational Climate Services, Dr Andrew Watkins.

“While the last three weeks have been dry in many parts of the country – due in part to unfavourable tropical weather patterns–it does not signal a weakening of La Niña, ”he said.

“This summer, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland are expected to see above average rainfall, meaning we face an increased risk of widespread floods .”

Meteorologists believe the current La Niña is not as strong as the one that formed between 2010 and 2012, when widespread flooding in Queensland claimed more than 30 lives.

The La Niña’s effects are expected to persist until at least the end of February.

Heatwaves are unlikely to reach the extremes of recent years, but could be longer and more humid this summer, the BoM has warned.

While the Bureau has warned of increased risk of flooding, there is still a risk of bush and grass fires.

“Southeastern Australia is one of the most fire-prone regions in the world,’’ Dr Watkins said.

“Even short periods of hot and dry weather increase the risk of fire in summer .”

That forecast is backed up by the latest Bushfire Outlook Report, which says there is a risk of grass and crop fires in large parts of New South Wales west of the Great Dividing Range, as well as grassland areas of the ACT and into north eastern Victoria.

The south and south west coasts of Western Australia can also expect above normal fire conditions through summer, the report stated.

Tasmania, Queensland, the Northern Territory and South Australia have all been rated as having normal fire potential for the summer season.