Tassie’s ... working-class hero
INTRODUCING our very own working-class hero, Premier Peter Gutwein. And it is more than just the Premier’s groovy panther tattoo — as revealed when he rolled up his sleeve for his anti-COVID jab during the election campaign — that has established Mr Gutwein’s street cred among workers.
Mr Gutwein’s Liberals can now quite justifiably claim to be the workers’ party, such was the significance of their stunning performance at the May 1 state election.
The Liberals have won the support of an overwhelming majority of blue-collar workers in the state’s three most working-class electorates — Bass, Braddon and Lyons — at three consecutive elections over seven years.
It is unprecedented, historic territory for the Liberals and is yet more solid evidence of a political paradigm shift that is under way in Tasmania and which I wrote about two weeks out from election day in this column.
For 75 years as a party, the Liberals were only able to win enough support from workingclass voters for one term in government at best, and that was quite often due to the support of independents who enabled the Liberals to form a coalition government.
Historically, over many generations, the working class would inevitably drift back to Labor at the next election.
Tasmania, you see, was a Labor state — this political reality helped define Labor’s reputation, down through generations of voters and countless elections, as the party of the workers.
The Liberals were seen as a party of capital, which looked after the interests of the ruling class, the bosses, the powerful and rich — and were epitomised by the generic smiling face of a wealthy Midland grazier.
However, the extraordinary performance by Mr Gutwein’s Liberals at the weekend, which came on top of former premier Will Hodgman’s outstanding results at the polls of 2014 and 2018, suggests very strongly the Liberals have stolen Labor’s historic mantle as the blue-collar party.
This trend, if part of a paradigm shift, could suggest a turning of the tables in years to come where the Liberals become the most common majority government and multiple-term government, and Labor is relegated to the occasional term in power, most often in coalition.
I believe this paradigm change may be upon us, only time will tell.
The only hope for Labor is to recognise the groundswell trend of the past three elections and dare to meet the underlying political paradigm change with an equally significant overhaul of its internal structures and update of its ideological foundations to better fit the 21st century.
Labor, as they say when an Aussie Rules footy team is floundering, needs to find its brand. It’s been dishing up game after game of indefinable dross. It must realign its policies with a strong, modern brand to which the Labor candidates themselves can first commit their hearts and minds, and then lead the Tasmanian community.
This rebranding job will take years of courageous leadership and a willingness to do the right thing, so as to firmly establish a newly minted 21st century Labor brand with its roots firmly in history, but its eyes trained on the future. A host of new challenges facing Tasmania and the world demands it.
A classic example of what not to do was clearly on display in Labor’s pokies policy.
Labor Leader Rebecca White was thrown under a bus by the party’s backflip on her bold policy to ban the pokies from pubs and clubs and confine them to casinos, which was aimed at improving the lives of a small but significant number of working-class families ruined by gaming technology that addicts and destroys, mostly in traditional Labor strongholds.
The policy backflip sent a sad message to the public about what matters to Labor — the party had chosen power over people, cold cash over warm hearts, and in doing so
had highlighted the party’s lack of principles and ticker.
These are harsh words but reflect accurately how many voters were left thinking.
The revelation that the backflip was recommended by a Labor committee that included former premier Paul Lennon — a paid lobbyist for pokies king, the Federal Group — added another layer of grime to an already ugly mess.
That Ms White was forced to concede in the first days of the campaign that she had signed a deal with the Australian Hotels Association, promising not to upset them again, was the last straw.
I reckon 80 per cent of those who voted for Kristie Johnston in Clark had the pokies in mind as they stood with their pencils in hand in the polling booth.
Labor’s cold, calculating pokies backflip, its arrogant majority government stand and its refusal to speak about the environment, despite loud public outcry against developing national parks, anger at fish farms and existential concerns about climate change, have left the party’s reputation in tatters.
Does Labor still stand for workers? Well, yes, as long as that’s OK after checking with the big end of town and consulting the unions and lobbies who represent those who own the hotels, rather than those whose bums are on the bar stools.
Labor is a mess — backroom deals and clandestine talks have distorted and debased the party’s policies for so long that few can remember what it really represents.
And judging from comments since the election by churlish Labor candidates, the historic extent of Gutwein’s achievement is being underrated and any consideration it is part of a broader paradigm shift that could plague Labor for decades is being ignored.
No state or federal government is ever elected to a third term without losing some support. Long-term governments always face voter disgruntlement. However, for the third election in a row the Liberals achieved roughly 50 per cent of the primary vote. It’s a tad down on last election, but a huge result.
What is more, the Liberals in 2018 benefited from an unprecedented multimilliondollar pro-pokies campaign.
Gutwein’s performance — just as decisive and I would argue much more significant — was achieved without anywhere near that campaign support. That’s astonishing.
At this point in time, if he wins majority government this time around, the likelihood of Gutwein extending the Liberal record to a fourth term at the next state election is more probable than Labor pulling off an unprecedented landslide swing to win majority government — and, if a fourth term came about, history would dub Mr Gutwein the hero of the Tasmanian working class and the Liberals as the party of the worker, something inconceivable just 10 years ago.