Plan for borders to reopen ‘gradually’

MIGRATION levels will continue to decline for another year before a “gradual” return to pre-pandemic levels as international borders reopen, bringing back tourists and helping fill skills “gaps”.

In the past year more people have left Australia than have come here, with

Treasury forecasting net overseas migration will fall from about 194,000 people in 2019-20 to -97,000 this financial year. This negative trend is expected to continue with a drop of about 77,000 people leaving Australia overall in 2021-22.

With wage growth expected to remain “moderate” over the next four years, the slower return of migrants will mean the domestic population will be the first option to fill job vacancies. After years of declining migration, the rate will eventually increase to about 235,000 in 2024-25, which is about the same as before the pandemic hit.

Treasury is forecasting spending by overseas tourists visiting from mid-2022 will be “more than offset” by Australians spending more on international travel and less on domestic consumption.

Officials estimate the “gradual arrival” of international students and migrants next year will “support growth” in the economy, particularly for higher education and by “filling skill gaps”.

Officials said the rate of international arrivals would “continue to be constrained” by state and territory quarantine caps, with the exception of passengers from safe travel zones like New Zealand.