LIONS v DOGS
First semi-final, Saturday, Gabba, 7.20pm
HOW THEY PLAY
The Lions play with a surge mentality and pride themselves on being a strong contested possession and pressure team. They have the highest kick-to-handball ratio in the competition. They’ve generally used the corridor coming out of defensive 50 to attack. However, there has been a subtle shift over the past month to use the boundary more. This helps protect turnovers but also if the ball goes out of bounds they can reset around stoppages.
THE KEY
Get the balance between offence and defence right post-clearance. In the first 30 seconds against Melbourne last week, Lachie Neale scrapped a kick forward. Dayne Zorko, Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage ran forward despite knowing they would not be able to impact the next play. Demon Christian Petracca maintained his position in the centre circle and was wide open to be used in a chain forward, which ended in a goal to key forward Ben Brown. The defence from the Lions’ midfield must improve dramatically.
THE CHALLENGE
Win the territory battle. Ruckman Oscar McInerney has an opportunity to be assertive against inexperienced Lewis Young and to give his midfielders first use. This season, Brisbane has a time-in-forward-half differential of plus 1min 30sec, while the Bulldogs are plus 8min 9sec. The Lions will need to ensure there is not a big discrepancy in that statistic this week.
THE THEME
Take the game on and trust those in front of the ball. The Lions have some injury concerns with no Eric Hipwood or Dan McStay, meaning Joe Daniher, Charlie Cameron and Lincoln McCarthy will need to step up. The Lions were slow with their ball movement last week, which was a key reason why they only had 45 inside
50s.
X-FACTOR
Skipper Dayne Zorko looked overawed by the occasion last week. However, he is capable of a significant role. If match-ups go his way and he spends more time in attack, he could have five or six shots at goal and be the match winner.
Callum Ah Chee (groin) test, Grant Birchall (knee) test, Darcy Gardiner (knee) test, Ryan Lester (hamstring) test, Dan McStay (concussion) 1 week, Noah Answerth (groin) season, Eric Hipwood (knee) season, Harry Sharp (ankle) season, Cam Rayner (knee) season
HOW THEY PLAY
A lot of people think the Dogs are a handball team, but they play what the opposition give them. Contested ball-winning ability is their signature element, though they’ve been slightly off in that area recently. At their best, they take the game on with great dare and high risk. Exiting defensive 50, they head towards the boundary more than any other team in a bid to protect their backline.
THE KEY
Suffocate
Brisbane’s ball movement. The Bulldogs kept the Lions to their lowest score of the year – 8.6 (54) – in round 4. The template of how to set up was demonstrated last week as Melbourne kept Brisbane to its second-lowest score of the season, 9.6 (60). The Dogs need to set up the ground defensively to cover all exits so the Lions are forced into slow play situations.
THE CHALLENGE
Replicate last week’s outstanding forward-half game. The Dogs were precise and methodical against Essendon. The conditions might have helped stifle the Bombers’ ability to exit D50, but the Bulldogs are at their menacing best when they get control of the footy centreforward. They scored a ridiculous 72 points from forward-half chains last week.
THE THEME
Win the territory battle. The Bulldogs dominated the inside-50 count 61-44 in round 4. Trying to have the ball live in the Bulldogs’ forward half will be a directive of coach Luke Beveridge. From there, they will be able to get the game on their terms and allow high defenders Caleb Daniel, Easton Wood and Bailey Dale to aggressively set up the ground to cover exits. That will force Daniel Rich, Harris Andrews and Grant Birchall to kick long down the line to aerial contests, which suits the Bulldogs.
X-FACTOR
Aaron Naughton. The big key forward has an insatiable appetite for assaulting the footy in the air with enormous courage and conviction. We saw his marking talent in the wet last week. In a drier game this week, he has enormous capabilities to hit the scoreboard. He just needs to kick straight after managing only 2.5 against Brisbane last time.
Zaine Cordy (illness) test, Hayden Crozier (concussion), TBC, Ed Richards (shoulder) TBC, Josh Bruce (knee) season, Toby McLean (knee) season