Get ready for life after vaccines

We need certainty about how we will emerge from lockdown, says Luke Martin

“THE only certainty is uncertainty” has been swirling around in my head the past few weeks.

Google tells me this phrase was first coined by the Roman philosopher, Pliny the Elder, about 2000 years ago.

But while it may just be a turn of phrase, for so many Tasmanian business owners, their families and staff, uncertainty has become a way of life during the past 18 months.

Crippling uncertainty that can trigger so many feelings of anxiety, despair and frustration, along with constant disruptions, rising debt levels and distorted aspirations for the future.

Right now, it is just bloody tough to see so many in my industry continue to ride this relentless rollercoaster of changing operating conditions, border restrictions and re-openings, resurgence and false starts, and now another round of indefinite border restrictions.

Of course, things could be much worse and no one should lose sight of what’s happening across Bass Strait.

But Tasmania is the most tourism-dependent economy in the country, and so many livelihoods and so much of our lifestyle is intrinsically tied to the strength of our visitor economy.

So, in that context, I’ll dare challenge the hypotheses of my old friend, Mr Pliny, and offer some bold expectations about the outlook for our tourism industry, where I seek to find my sense of certainty.

Firstly, the next few weeks and probably months are going to be very tough.

There is no sugar-coating it. With no JobKeeper-style payment, the outlook for most businesses is far more challenging this year than last.

The dilemma facing many of our bigger employers is how long can they carry their staffing levels in anticipation of a busy summer season, while burning cash.

To date, the state government has been critical and brilliant in working with the industry on pulling whatever levers we can to stimulate demand from the local and interstate markets that are open, while relieving business cost pressures.

This must remain our driving concern and priority over the next few weeks.

Secondly, I am certain when borders to NSW and Victoria do re-open, demand will recover very quickly.

We saw over the first half of this year just how strong demand recovered when there was more certainty around travel.

Many operators were reporting record Aprils and Mays. Actual visitor spending in the state smashed forecasts.

Finally, I believe the future of Tasmania’s tourism industry is very, very bright.

But to get there, we firstly need to see the back of Covid.

As a state we have some challenging decisions to confront as we nudge closer to that 70 and 80 per cent vaccine threshold, which the national cabinet has agreed should be the trigger for no more lockdowns and no more disrupted travel for vaccinated Australians.

In Tasmania, the time has come when we need to transition our thinking from believing we can live without Covid, to one of minimising risk for our loved ones and our seemingly forever stressed health system.

From our industry’s perspective, we want to see this done sensibly but proactively.

We can’t wait to reach that vaccine threshold in November, or whenever it comes, only to then have a divisive debate within the community about what to do next.

Our organisation has put forward a suggestion that when we do open our borders to places with cases of Covid still in the community, we only allow fully vaccinated visitors into the state with no quarantine requirements.

Yes, vaccinated people can still carry the virus. But the medicos are all saying the risk factor of transfer is much lower and, in a new-Covid normal, this seems to be one sensible measure the government should be seriously considering.

So, while being in tourism in Tasmania in 2021 might feel like the very epitome of Pliny the Elder’s concept of uncertainty, if we stick fat as a tourism industry and community in tackling our challenges head-on, we can expect a bright future ahead.

Finally, if anyone reading this is finding those feelings of anxiety or apprehension overwhelming, remember Lifeline is always there for a chat on 1800 984 434.