DEMONS v CATS
First preliminary final, Perth Stadium, Friday 7.50pm
THE KEY
OWNING the turnover game.
The Cats defend a turnover better than any other club, so the Demons’ ability to score from this source is critical.
Melbourne’s best football comes when it gets this facet right and the qualifying final against Brisbane was a case in point.
The Dees delivered a masterclass that night, scoring a season-high 73 points from turnover, compared to only 33 points that way against Geelong in round 23.
That was Melbourne’s third-fewest tally for the year. Winning contested ball must be a priority as well, because the Cats haven’t lost all season when they’re ahead in that count.
THE THEME
PRESSURE and effective tackling must be a focus.
It’s a choice you must embrace at this stage of the season, especially when you’ve got equally talented teams pitted against one another.
The intent to tackle can be the difference in separating victory from defeat.
Geelong’s a big-bodied team and can break through tackles or at the very least stand up in them and still release the ball.
Kozzy Pickett, Charlie Spargo, Alex NealBullen, James Harmes and even Clayton Oliver will be important in setting the tone.
THE CHALLENGE
TAKING away Geelong’s control game.
That means giving the Cats no time or space when they have the ball.
Simon Goodwin would’ve gone to school in the past fortnight on how Port Adelaide dismantled the Cats in their qualifying final.
The Demons have been the best defensive team for two reasons.
Firstly, their players are in sync in spatial defence and secondly, they are excellent at forcing the opposition into turnovers. Melbourne must starve Geelong of uncontested possessions – and uncontested marks, in particular.
GWS couldn’t get the ball off the Cats last week and we saw what happened once Geelong’s kick-mark game got
going.
The Dees’ defenders must come in behind their attack and bottle up their front half.
X-FACTOR
KOZZY Pickett. He has the potential to be the most dangerous and influential small forward on the field.
Pickett boasts electrifying speed and creates chaos with ball in hand that can cause defenders to panic.
But in defence, that speed can be used for perceived pressure and chase-down tackles. He’s the type of player whose actions are uplifting for teammates.
THE KEY
CONTROLLING stoppages and winning contested ball.
The Cats need a positive differential in both of those to gain ascendancy at the centre bounce and around-theground stoppages and win the territory battle.
That relies on a competitive and physical Rhys Stanley, who has improved in those areas in the past two weeks. But going up against Gawn is a whole other level.
Stanley has a big role to play to give Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield, Cam Guthrie and Mitch Duncan silver service.
The midfielders must have the mindset that every contest matters, because they fell away badly against the Demons last time.
THE THEME
THE message to the players needs to be about faith and belief in the game plan and themselves, given they were 44 points up on Melbourne in round 23.
That was a classic rise and fall match for the Cats. They went from being plus-54 in disposals from the start of the second quarter to the 20minute mark of the third term, to being minus-32 after that.
Everything else dropped off as well, but the positive is the position they were in.
THE CHALLENGE
HOW Geelong enters the forward 50 and whether it can replicate the efficiency from round 23.
The Cats kicked nine goals from only 19 entries at one stage between the second and third quarters.
They need to strike the right balance with the speed of their ball movement.
Getting the ball in quick helps create one-on-one opportunities for Hawkins and Cameron, but comes at the risk of playing into Melbourne’s intercepting strength.
There will be times when Close and Miers get caught at half-back playing their role and won’t be able to make it back forward in time on a fast break.
In this scenario, Geelong must be patient and not bomb it in long to an outnumbered situation.
X-FACTOR
ESAVA Ratugolea. This man could be the key to curbing Melbourne’s greatest strength down back. Ratugolea can not only be a marking presence and hit the scoreboard regularly, but can also keep Jake Lever occupied and limit his offensive impact. Lever’s had 15-plus intercept possession on five occasions this season and took seven intercept marks last time, so he must be stopped.