MANAGING EXPECTATIONS ABOUT COVID
AS Tasmania and the rest of the country closes on the 80 per cent vaccine target and the likely easing of border restrictions, there are mixed emotions in the community. On the one hand many are hopeful this will signal more certainty about travel between the states and the chance to visit long-missed loved ones across the country and, ultimately, overseas.
For our hard-hit tourism and hospitality industry, it is a light at the end of a long, dark tunnel that many have been trapped in for the past 18 months. Families separated by lockdowns and the need to quarantine may also be able to plan postponed weddings and other family celebrations.
But then there are those in our community who are terribly anxious about the easing of borders – especially since the Delta variant is still likely to be widespread interstate. Those working in the healthcare and aged care sector fear a big jump in Covid cases and worry about how they might cope as they toil in an alreadystrained system. It is a real fear because If there are still 20 per cent of unvaccinated eligible Tasmanians, that is about 84,000 who would suddenly be in the firing line. If only 1 per cent caught Covid, there is no way the hospital system could cope with 8400 Covid cases all at once.
Former Tasmanian Dale Fisher, who is a key world expert in infectious disease and has been helping to plan and advise the government in dealing with Covid in his home country of Singapore, said Tasmania and Australia, in general, had done very well in controlling Covid but the next phase would be critical.
Professor Fisher said unlike other nations which have been overrun by Covid, Australia, and particular states such as Tasmania, had largely been able to keep it out – so much so that the opening of borders, meant letting the virus in.
He said this would test the nerve of many state premiers and that opening borders would mean Tasmania will need to introduce more restrictions such as mask wearing, limits to gathering sizes, enforced social distancing, contact tracing compliance and very tight controls on visitors to aged care facilities and hospitals.
On Friday the government announced new mask-wearing restrictions at indoor and outdoor events of 1000 people or more. Some expressed surprise and wondered why such a measure was necessary, given we have no Covid cases. But the fact is the government must start to change expectations now, so we have good habits and practices in place when borders reopen.
The reopening of borders is inevitable if we are going to part of the rest of Australia and the world. But an 80 or even 90 per cent vaccination rate will not signal a time to party.
High vaccination rates will protect people, keeping 96 per cent out of hospital, but many will remain unprotected and some restrictions will have to remain in place so we can control outbreaks and allow the health care system to cope with inevitable cases.