Much work ahead in Covid world

We all need to stop wishing for a return to ‘business as usual’, says Beth Rees

A VIDEO on social media highlights the painful consequences of lockdowns designed to suppress the spread of coronavirus, especially the very infectious delta strain.

This young woman is selfemployed, and is ineligible for any government assistance. Her business is failing due to the lockdown, and she has no income and no way to pay for food and rent within the next week or two. It’s a dreadful dilemma.

In Australia, we are blessed with health professionals who understand the power of quarantine, social distancing and lockdowns, and leaders who had the courage to accept this advice.

When preventive measures are working, there is nothing to see.

However, a quick look at the countries that don’t have lockdowns shows us that the great god economy doesn’t run so well with overwhelmed health systems, and that absence of lockdowns doesn’t seem to be too tempting for their would-be tourist industry.

Once under control, smaller outbreaks can be halted much more quickly.

Experience shows that a short, sharp lockdown can stop people moving about long enough to trace the carriers and quarantine them before they spread.

Unfortunately, the alternative was recently demonstrated in Sydney, where the response was too little too late, with the result that now Victoria and South Australia are fighting to stop the spread that should have been halted in NSW.

The infection travels at exponential rates (they are multiplied rather than additive) – that means that if a single person can infect three people (R0=3), then in 10 days, they can potentially have infected just under 20,000 people.

When you have high rates of infection, even a low percentage of morbidity and mortality (sickness and death) can result in high numbers.

Having said this, we must protect and support the community and small businesses.

It’s time to stop wishing for business as usual, and hoping things will be back to normal soon – they won’t be, and it would be good to have some serious leadership that is willing to face this and lead us through.

We have to address the economy that subsidises homes as investments, at the expense of normal people having a roof over their head.

We have to look to the distribution of food and other essentials so no-one goes homeless or hungry. We have to create strong communities so that we can all look after each other in whatever ways are needed.

We have to take care of that young woman, and the many others like her, so that we can all stay safe till we work out ways to survive this pandemic.

Right now we are in the middle of a huge evolutionary experiment.

Whatever decision we make regarding treatment, vaccination, or simply doing nothing, can only be made on the basis of what we have learned from previous epidemics and pandemics (or not learned). We have some choice as to which arm of the experiment we choose to join (active treatment, vaccination, or “control” – choosing to do nothing).

We have little choice as to which arm of the epidemiological experiment we join.

We are lucky enough to be in a country that has chosen to halt or slow down the infection rate.

I would like to see more research and development put towards early treatments.

Vaccination is a good start, but it’s not for everyone, and it doesn’t halt mild infections and the spread of the disease to vulnerable people.

It’s all pretty scary, so it’s no wonder that the shock jocks and conspiracy theorists are having a field day. But I’d still rather be here than in India or Brazil or the UK as they have their grand freedom-to-get-sick experiment.