LISTEN TO THE FACTS AND ACT
AT LAST week’s press conference the Tasmanian Director of Public Health made a throwaway line about the accuracy of all modelling. It might have sounded glib but what Dr Mark Veitch was warning against was using a scientific model as though it were gospel. Scientific data is about the best tool that we have to make literally life or death decisions but it can be misinterpreted, used for ulterior motives and by its nature, it’s limited by the data available.
Therefore when discussing our path towards living with Covid-19 beware armchair experts who try to cherry pick their own data and use sweeping statements that achieve nothing but put the fear of God into the broader public.
Some 20 months into the pandemic, have seen not only our state government, but governments across the nation seek (and for the most part) heed the advice of select epidemiologists and other public health officials in guiding their responses to this unprecedented crisis. It has been a mostly successful interaction between well-formed advice and political judgment.
In formulating its response to the emergence of the Delta strain and to assist with the reopening of the state’s borders, the state government has commissioned its own modelling from the Garvan Institute. That modelling, which is expected to be publicly released in the coming weeks will build on what is known so far about the Delta variant and provide an overview taking into account Tasmania’s demographic profile and vaccination rates. It will be up-to-date data, experts informing experts on how to respond. It will be open to scrutiny about its freshness and its relevance and it too will have its limitations. It will be up to our political leaders to demonstrate how they will balance competing interests and manage risk to an acceptable level. Ultimately, the debate over whether to open the borders at 80, 90 or 100 per cent is moot; we can only vaccinate those people who have access to and willingly want to roll up their sleeves. When should we open our borders? When Premier Peter Gutwein and his health department can confidently say Tasmanians have been given every opportunity to take their shot. That means serious outreach programs in rural and remote communities, it means assisting any non-English speakers in our communities and going directly to those who are likely to slip between the cracks. Once that has happened, which the Premier says will be by the beginning of December, with the additional plan to only allow vaccinated people to enter the state after undergoing rapid testing, it’s time to stick to the national plan of no more sweeping lockdowns and open borders.
Anyone suggesting otherwise cannot answer the question: if not then, when? And that’s not good enough when it comes to returning our freedoms.