Tassie king of recovery
Deloitte forecasts strong economic performance
TASMANIA is forecast to post the fastest economic growth in the nation this financial year, but how we transition to more open borders will be key, Deloitte Access Economics says.
“With Covid-19 harder to find than a tagged Tasmanian brown trout – 45 of the 50 $2000 tagged fish remain at large in 15 lakes – businesses are currently the most confident in the country,” Deloitte’s latest business outlook says.
Tasmania should post 3.6 per cent growth in its economic performance – the best in Australia alongside South
Australia. “Tasmania’s borders have been its greatest asset through Covid. But vaccinations – inside and outside the state – are the best leading indicator to watch,” it said.
“The good news is that Tassie looks well placed to be able to choose the timing of that transition.”
Premier Peter Gutwein said the report confirmed the government’s plan to secure Tasmania’s future was working and the economy was performing well while it continued to manage the Covid-19 pandemic.
“There’s recognition that our retail sector continues to go from strength to strength as locals spend big across the board, particularly when it comes to home improvements and vehicles,” Mr Gutwein said.
“We know Tasmanian exports are booming having exceeded $4bn for the first time in August 2021 and the report acknowledges Tasmanian minerals being a hot commodity with soaring mineral export earnings.”
Tasmania has kept the virus at bay pretty successfully for more than 18 months and the retail sector is going “from strength to strength” Deloitte said.
“But some of the spending train is reaching the station, so don’t expect families to drastically increase their spending as they pop off to the shops through 2022.”
Deloitte said the recent state budget showed the benefits of this faster-thanexpected recovery. Net debt is now expected to be close to $1bn lower than previously expected.
And that comes despite an extra boost to spending on healthcare – particularly community-based and preventive services.
“Spending on infrastructure also continues to get the green light across the state (albeit at a more gradual pace). And with delays hindering the uptake of building last year, there’s scope
to pick up the pace. That said, the closure of borders continues to put Tassie’s labour market to the test. Although job advertisements are elevated, getting the right workers continues to be an issue.”