LABOR LOSES GROUND IN TASSIE

OUR nation has changed hands, into the embrace of a man who hopes to inspire his fellow Australians to “reach for the stars”. Anthony Albanese’s midnight speech on Saturday was aimed at respecting all Australians, no matter how they voted, with a special nod to the nation’s battlers.

“Every parent wants more for the next generation than they had. My mother dreamt of a better life for me. And I hope that my journey in life inspires Australians to reach for the stars,” he said.

But perhaps oddly, Tasmania – undeniably home to some of the nation’s most disadvantaged electorates and biggest battlers – swung away from the centre-left sentiments of the Labor Party this election.

Tasmania was the only state in the nation to swing towards the Coalition – and by a lot.

Electoral analyst Kevin Bonham says Saturday night’s election was an “especially stark example” of a trend that had been increasing since the 1970s. Dr Bonham said Tasmania’s election idiosyncrasies began with the Franklin Dam campaign, when the state’s environmental battle was catapulted to an international stage.

“Tasmania continues to be volatile while the rest of the nation has become less so,” he said.

But in this federal election, as well as the 2019 election, Dr Bonham said the volatility seemed to be related to “candidate factors”.

Think of 2019 Liberal candidate for Lyons Jessica Whelan, who was disendorsed after making anti-Islamic Facebook posts – with the seat won by Labor’s Brian Mitchell. This year, Mr Mitchell’s old – but embarrassing – social media posts about “boobies” and “balls” also affected his chances of clearly winning back the seat. His primary vote plummeted and he remains in a tight tussle with the Liberals’ Susie Bower.

Meanwhile, in Braddon, an expected close race bucked predictions.

The seat was retained by Liberal incumbent Gavin Pearce with a swing of about 10 per cent – and is no longer considered marginal. The result was likely influenced by skeletons in the Labor closet, with revelations emerging during the campaign that challenger Chris Lynch had a 1994 drug conviction.

In Bass, Liberal Bridget Archer turned the tide of that northern division, where previously just one sitting MP since 1993 had been re-elected.

Dr Bonham said there was also a trend for groups of Tasmanian seats to “swing together”.

Saturday night’s results in northern Tasmania proved that point, with swings to the Coalition.

While Labor has emerged as the victors on a national scale, the story is different here in Tasmania.