Mitchell talks up chances

LABOR MP Brian Mitchell remains confident he has won the seat in Lyons as the vote tally continues to teeter on a knife’s edge.

Mr Mitchell said it was still too early to declare a victory outright, but said he felt reasonably comfortable with his 700-vote lead.

It is a razor-thin margin compared with the last election, when he won a commanding lead of 5.2 per cent.

Mr Mitchell said he had “lessons to learn” from this result, with several possible explanations for the swing against him and Tasmanian Labor in general.

“It appears the entire national vote has gone straight to the Liberals whereas where my primary vote has gone down, it’s gone straight to Lambie’s candidate,” he said.

“The Liberal primary vote in Tasmania has stayed resilient despite all the criticism of [Scott] Morrison, the incompetence, the scandals.

“We need to take stock of that and figure out why that is.

“I hazard a guess that some of that is down to the fact that the state Liberal government remains relatively popular.”

Election expert Kevin Bonham said it was “rather likely” that Mr Mitchell had won the seat of Lyons, despite the strong swing to Liberal candidate Susie Bower, but said the outcome was still not certain.

Dr Bonham said he believed there may have been a “data entry error” seen at one of the Lyons booths, meaning Mr Mitchell’s real lead might be bigger than previously thought.

“It’s most likely that Brian Mitchell has 500 votes coming his way,” he said.

“It appears that data has been entered the wrong way round in one booth. If that is the case, that will land 500 votes towards Mitchell’s tally and put the seat beyond all doubt.”