The vehicle-fleet statistics

Don’t you just love statistics, and how they can be manipulated?

By the time you read this, it ought to be around the festering time when you put your feet up, relax with some liquid refreshment of the cold kind, and enjoy a good read. But before you get stuck into that good read, have a squiz at this!

In the lead-up to the general election, one of the minor parties proposed moving the port of Auckland to Whangarei. I dismissed that as a daft idea, simply because the task of moving the harbour and all its water by road up to Northland would take ages and disrupt the holiday traffic — not to mention the damage to the roads. Remember that 10 litres of water weighs 10kg, and I’m not sure how many litres of water a tanker can hold, but it would be a lot of trips, for sure.

The main point of that debate, however, was the comment about the ‘used car lot’ on one of the wharves, which is where all the imports are off-loaded prior to being shipped around the country. There were several photos of the cars parked up on the wharf, and I guess it could be described as an eyesore. But it begged the question, who is buying all those cars, and what happens to the ones they replace? It can be presumed that many of the new arrivals to New Zealand (i.e., immigrants) will buy some of them, but many others will be sold via the second-hand car market.

Statistics

Some time ago, I found statistics that indicated that around 80 per cent of vehicle registration cancellations (that is, where the registration is physically cancelled by the owner or an insurance company when the vehicle has been written off) were for vehicles less than 10 years old. I seized on that as evidence that most modern cars are less safe than older ones, and/ or the drivers of newer cars take more risks. As evidence of that, I would cite the crash statistics for 1964, when there were 428 road deaths, compared with 1966, when there were 549. What had changed in the intervening years? The introduction of seat belts! All that did was get stupid drivers to think it was safer to go faster, and many did. However, as I have said previously, it isn’t the speed that kills; rather, it’s the sudden stop! Interestingly, road deaths continued to climb, from 570 deaths in 1969 to 669 in 1984. The advent of cheap used Japanese imports in the late 1980s did not help. In fact, the toll continued to rise, almost without exception, until 2000, when it fell below the 500 mark for the first time since 1964.

The good news is that, according to the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), there are still some 24,995 pre-1970 cars and vans on our roads, with a further 23,574 on exemption. The NZTA also acknowledges a further 5789 cars and vans that have no registration. I’ll put my hand up to owning three exempt vehicles, but all the others have regos and current warrants.

Confusing

So, back to my original question, which was, what has happened to all the vehicles that these imports will replace? This is where it gets confusing. On one hand, we supposedly have 24,995 pre-1970 cars and vans currently registered, but the latest statistics I can find on the NZTA website would indicate that there are only 2943 pre-1980 or older cars and vans currently registered — so does that mean that, of the 24,995 vehicles referred to in the stats, only 2943 are road legal? Crikey! If you count the numbers of pre-1980 cars that turn up to all the car shows and vehicle displays, methinks that there is a bit of naughtiness going on with unregistered vehicles being driven to and from such shows — and I’m excluding those using dealer plates. It’s a known fact that since the ACC motorcycle levies were ratcheted up, some 70 per cent of bikes with a capacity rating in excess of 600cc have had their registrations placed on hold!

Looking back at the statistics (again), in 2001, for example, there were in excess of 125,000 cars deregistered, with some 170,000 used-import arrivals. Whereas, in 2013, the cancelled registrations numbered around 140,000, with around 200,000 used-import arrivals. In 2013, most of the deregistered cars were on average 19.1 years old, but New Zealand–new cars were 21.2 years old! The NZTA report states that most imports manufactured in the mid 1990s will reach the end of their lives over the next five years, and the numbers leaving the fleet will increase.

As Big Al would say in episodes of Home Improvement, “I don’t think so, Tim!” For example, my 1995 Mitsubishi Chariot — which was New Zealand new — has just clocked up its first 100,000km, and it is such a reliable workhorse that I don’t envisage replacing it even in five years’ time, as I would have to pay around $10K to $15K to some car retailer to get another similar-sized car with probably dubious kilometres (you know, the ‘certified’ sticker authenticating the odometer goes on after the odometer has been rewound via the car’s on-board computer! The technology is out there if you go looking for it).

No intention

And 2018 is another milestone — I will have owned my MKI Zephyr convertible for 40 years, and the MKI sedan for 45 years. I’ve no intention of replacing them for either a new car or an import, and neither of them requires seat belts. Let’s hope the fun police don’t try to make us have to retrofit safety belts.

So, despite what the statistics would have us believe, modern cars are more clearly dangerous than older ones, as evidenced by how many of us still get about safely in them. The only thing I’ll have to worry about is that, in the event that I travel up to Auckland in either Zephyr, and I see the new 110kph signs, I’ll be saying, “Oh well, no harm in trying, I guess”!

OK, time to get back to that good read. And remember why you shouldn’t drink and drive — because if you do, and go over a bump/pothole (we’ve still got lots here in Christchurch), you’ll probably spill it! The drink, not the pot hole. And, finally, if you spot someone driving and talking on their mobile phone, give ’em a blast of your Alpine air horns — I’ve found that works a treat!

Drive carefully and have a safe and happy start to the new year.