Path­ways to trans­port’s fu­ture

Count­down for com­mer­cial trans­port to be fos­sil-free by 2050

Owner Driver - - The Goods | News From The Highway And Beyond -

A FOS­SIL-FREE COM­MER­CIAL trans­port sys­tem in the time­frame of the Paris Agree­ment tar­get is not only pos­si­ble, but also fi­nan­cially at­trac­tive from a so­ci­etal per­spec­tive. This is the key con­clu­sion of a study ini­ti­ated by Sca­nia.

“Reach­ing zero CO2 emis­sions in our sec­tor in the time­frame of the Paris Agree­ment is at­tain­able but will call for change at an un­prece­dented high speed, and for se­ri­ous and joint pri­vate and pub­lic sec­tor com­mit­ment,” Sca­nia pres­i­dent and CEO Hen­rik Hen­riks­son says.

Sca­nia says a com­pre­hen­sive anal­y­sis, un­der­taken and re­viewed by an ex­ter­nal aca­demic panel, shows that sev­eral path­ways can be pur­sued to phase out car­bon emis­sions. Trac­ing the road to zero emis­sions by 2050 through a back-cast mod­el­ling ap­proach, the anal­y­sis shows the vi­a­bil­ity of con­cur­rent path­ways. The re­search cov­ers three trans­port seg­ments: long haulage, dis­tri­bu­tion and city bus, and four coun­tries: Swe­den, Ger­many, China and the US.

“We can achieve more than 20 per cent re­duc­tion of CO2 emis­sions by work­ing even smarter in the cur­rent trans­port sys­tems, for ex­am­ple through im­proved rout­ing and bet­ter load man­age­ment,” Hen­riks­son says. “We see sev­eral fuel and pow­er­train path­ways to a fos­sil-free fu­ture. Bio­fu­els of­fer the fastest CO2 emis­sions re­duc­tions and elec­tri­fi­ca­tion is the most cost-ef­fec­tive.”

New tech­nolo­gies can take a long time to achieve wide adop­tion, as the existing stock of ve­hi­cles turns over slowly. To be fos­sil-free by 2050 there­fore re­quires changes at scale al­ready by 2025, in­clud­ing not only new tech­nolo­gies but also new in­fra­struc­ture.

Fur­ther, the need to achieve an av­er­age global growth rate of new fos­sil-free pow­er­train tech­nolo­gies of at least 5 to 10 per­cent­age points per year should reach full sales pen­e­tra­tion by 2040. To reach this goal, the trans­port sec­tor and ad­ja­cent in­dus­tries must ini­ti­ate change rapidly and im­me­di­ately.

Al­though the study noted dif­fer­ences in the com­ing 15 years, the path­ways are rel­a­tively sim­i­lar over time and across the vary­ing mar­kets. Re­gard­less of path­way, or if it will be a mix where mul­ti­ple pow­er­train tech­nolo­gies and in­fra­struc­tures co­ex­ist, they re­quire not only an un­prece­dented rate of tech­no­log­i­cal change but also that of ad­ja­cent in­dus­tries to de­car­bonise.

Start­ing im­me­di­ately, fund­ing mech­a­nisms and firm com­mit­ments must be made avail­able for large-scale tech­no­log­i­cal and sup­port­ing in­fra­struc­ture de­vel­op­ment. The energy sys­tem, globally, must in par­al­lel phase out fos­sil-fuel de­pen­dency. Equally de­ci­sive is that trans­port buy­ers con­tinue to in­crease the de­mand for fos­sil-free sup­ply and de­liv­ery ser­vices.

“We see sev­eral fuel and pow­er­train path­ways to a fos­sil-free fu­ture”

Sca­nia CEO Hen­rik Hen­riks­son

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