Our race columnist on the latest events
Audacious or ill-advised? Jens considers Quintana’s chances of successfully doing the Giro-Tour double
T he Giro will be well underway when you read this and after looking at the start list I see a clear trend there. The teams who want to win the Tour have kept their leader out of the Giro and sent their first lieutenant instead. Want examples? Here you go: Chris Froome and Sky want to win the Tour so they’ve sent Geraint Thomas (and Mikel Landa) to the Giro. Richie Porte and BMC want to win the Tour so they’ve sent Tejay van Garderen to the Giro. Alberto Contador and Trek-Segafredo want to win the Tour. They’ve sent Bauke Mollema to the Giro.
The only exception is Movistar and by going against the trend they’ve taken a bold decision, but it’s one that will cost them all chances of winning the Tour in July. The double has not been done in what seems like forever and there’s absolutely no reason to believe that Nairo Quintana will be able to change that this year. A lot of good and great riders have tried in recent years and it seems to be pretty much impossible in modern cycling. This year’s Tour, with a total of only 37km of TTs, is tailor-made for a climber like Quintana. He could keep his losses to riders like Froome to a minimum. So why did he and his team decide to race the Giro instead of focusing exclusively on the Tour?
Are they confident they’ll be able to pull off the double? Or is it pure desperation? Maybe they just haven’t thought the whole idea through completely. Another problem they’ll face is the evergreen Alejandro Valverde. He just doesn’t seem to age at all and keeps winning awesome races. Following his break after the Ardennes Classics he’ll be ready and sharp for the Tour, so Movistar will have the co-leadership problem again, which will result in them finishing third and fourth. There’s no way they’re going to win the Tour like that.
At BMC they seem to have learned that lesson. It’s all for Van Garderen at the Giro and then they have a single leader for the Tour with Porte – and he’ll be on the podium provided they don’t abandon him when he has a puncture. Sky is going to give Thomas the chance to explore his capacities at the Giro but, make no mistake, he’ll be a lieutenant for Froome in the Tour. That’s the way to go if you want the yellow jersey in Paris.
I don’t see Quintana winning the Tour coming out of a Giro where such a high-class field is fighting for the pink jersey. In my opinion, he’ll need to pin all his hopes on the Giro. If he doesn’t win there then he’ll end up in second or third place and maybe a similar position at the Tour, because the Tour is going to be Froome winning and Richie Porte second. I think Quintana has set himself up for failure by trying the double – it’s the perfect recipe for not winning the Tour.
Something else now: 2017 will be the sixth year since losing my friend and teammate Wouter Weylandt in a fatal crash in the Giro. We also lost Michele Scarponi and Chad Young within a few days of each other in April. Cycling is a beautiful sport, but sometimes we’re reminded, in the most brutal way, that it’s also a dangerous one. So let’s stop for a minute and remember the friends we’ve lost, send our thoughts to their families, kiss our partners and children, and take a moment to tell them how much we love them. Let’s hope that all riders stay safe out there this summer and for the rest of the season.
Jens Voigt retired in 2014 following an 18-year career as one of the sport's most loved and attacking riders. He held the Hour Record for 42 days. Commentators never did agree how to pronounce his name.
I think Quintana has set himself up for failure by trying the double – it’s the perfect recipe for not winning the Tour